Assessing the Socio-Economic and Natural Factors Shaping Türkiye’s Virtual Land Trade Balance

Agricultural trade not only facilitates the exchange of final products but also leads to the indirect transfer of arable land resources involved in their production processes across countries. These indirect flows are commonly referred to in the literature as virtual land flows or virtual land trade. An in-depth understanding of the factors influencing virtual land flows is crucial for both the management of these flows and the sustainable and efficient allocation of limited arable land resources on a global scale. The objective of this study is to identify the key determinants that influence virtual land flows in Türkiye’s trade of plant-based agricultural products. To achieve this, the virtual land trade balance for Türkiye was computed by estimating the import and export volumes of virtual land from 1986 to 2019, based on crop, year, and country-specific yield values. Subsequently, the relationship between Türkiye’s virtual land trade balance and macroeconomic and environmental variables—such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the real effective exchange rate, annual total precipitation, per capita arable land, and fertilizer usage—was investigated using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The findings of this study indicate that the most significant factors influencing Türkiye’s virtual land flows are per capita arable land endowment and fertilizer usage. This result highlights the strong relationship between virtual land flows and variables related to productivity and natural resource endowment, while also emphasizing the importance of integrating sustainability considerations and environmental impacts into contemporary agricultural policy frameworks. Elucidating the dynamics of virtual land trade is a pivotal step toward ensuring the long-term sustainability of international agricultural trade, as well as the equitable and efficient allocation of arable land resources. Furthermore, it represents a fundamental strategy for global agricultural production, offering critical insights for shaping future agricultural policy and practice at the global level.