The Influence of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Carbon Emissions: An Analysis Based on the Threshold Effect of Green Innovation

As climate change has become a common challenge to global sustainable development, China has also proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals to cope with it. To achieve the dual-carbon goal, it has released a series of specific measures, like controlling both the amount and intensity of carbon emissions. It has also put in place a “1+N” policy framework for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, among which the industrial structure adjustment and technological progress are the most direct and effective ways to achieve climate-friendly sustainable development. So, it is of great benefit to examine the industrial structure adjustment and corresponding carbon emissions effect for the formulation of reasonable industrial adjustment policies. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2019, this paper adopts the panel threshold model to investigate the influence of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emissions at different levels of green innovation. Its findings show that there exists a nonlinear relationship between the industrial structure adjustment and carbon emissions and the influence of the former on the latter has the threshold effect of green innovation. Specifically, when green innovation capacity falls below a certain threshold value, the industry structure adjustment has no significant correlation with carbon emissions; when the threshold value is exceeded, changing industrial structure can dramatically reduce carbon emissions. According to the findings, it is suggested that in the process of attaining the dual-carbon goal, the government should highly promote industrial restructuring and technological advancement, especially supporting low-carbon and green technological innovation and ensuring the continuity and consistency of green innovation policy to enhance the carbon emission reduction effect of industrial optimization.