IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i13p5297-d1419743.html

Evaluating the Determinants of Deforestation in Romania: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and the Bayer–Hanck Cointegration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Irina Georgescu

    (Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 0105552 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Ionuț Nica

    (Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 0105552 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This study focuses on deforestation, a key aspect of the current environmental decline linked to worldwide economic development and increasing populations. It examines how renewable energy consumption (RENC), GDP per capita, urbanization (URB) and foreign direct investments (FDI) have influenced the expansion of forest areas (FAG) in Romania from 1990 to 2022, utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the Bayer–Hanck cointegration approach. The main results of the paper are the following: GDP has a positive and statistically significant long-term influence on FAG; URB and FDI have a long-term negative impact on FAG; and RENC is not a significant determinant of FAG. In the short term, a 1% increase in URB leads to an 809.88% decrease in FAG, while a 1% increase in the first and second lag of URB leads to a 323.06%, and 216.26% increase in FAG. This suggests that as more land is developed for urban use (like building homes, businesses, and infrastructure), the immediate consequence is a significant reduction in the area available for forests. This effect indicates a strong inverse relationship between urbanization and the availability of land for forests in the short term. Our results underscore the importance of sustainable development strategies, including green urban planning and robust forest conservation, to offset the adverse effects of increased FDI on Romania’s environmental conservation, emphasizing the need for careful strategic planning and strong environmental policies to balance economic growth with forest protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Georgescu & Ionuț Nica, 2024. "Evaluating the Determinants of Deforestation in Romania: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and the Bayer–Hanck Cointegration Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:13:p:5297-:d:1419743
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/13/5297/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/13/5297/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Eric Neumayer, 2002. "Do Democracies Exhibit Stronger International Environmental Commitment? A Cross-country Analysis," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(2), pages 139-164, March.
    3. Barbier, Edward B. & Tesfaw, Anteneh, 2015. "Explaining forest transitions: The role of governance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 252-261.
    4. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Heger, Martin, 2019. "Deforestation and economic development: Evidence from national borders," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 347-353.
    5. Abid Rashid Gill & Kuperan K. Viswanathan & Sallahuddin Hassan, 2018. "A test of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon emission and potential of renewable energy to reduce green house gases (GHG) in Malaysia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1103-1114, June.
    6. Žiga Malek & Veronica Zumpano & Haydar Hussin, 2018. "Forest management and future changes to ecosystem services in the Romanian Carpathians," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1275-1291, June.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Pablo-Romero, María P. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Gil-Pérez, Jesús, 2023. "Is deforestation needed for growth? Testing the EKC hypothesis for Latin America," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Fangmiao Hou & Xiaoyi Li & Chengliang Wu & Yufei Yin & Hui Xiao, 2023. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Forestry Industry Structure Upgrading: The Moderating Effect on Labor Migration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-23, February.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    12. Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2001. "Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation: A Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 995-1010, June.
    13. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    14. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Tanner, Andrew M. & Johnston, Alison L., 2017. "The Impact of Rural Electric Access on Deforestation Rates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 174-185.
    16. Armenia Androniceanu & Irina Georgescu & Ionuț Nica & Nora Chiriță, 2023. "A Comprehensive Analysis of Renewable Energy Based on Integrating Economic Cybernetics and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model—The Case of Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-28, August.
    17. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    18. Cary, Michael & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2021. "Democracy and deforestation: The role of spillover effects," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    19. Georgescu, Irina Alexandra & Oprea, Simona-Vasilica & Bâra, Adela, 2024. "Investigating the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, renewables and pollution across diverse regions in the globalization era," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    20. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    21. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    24. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Binh Quang, 2023. "Environmental foe or friend: The influence of the shadow economy on forest land," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    25. Caravaggio, Nicola, 2020. "A global empirical re-assessment of the Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irina Georgescu & Mioara Băncescu, 2025. "Land Use and Water Stress as Determinants of Ecosystem Resilience: A Panel Data Analysis of Biodiversity Loss Drivers in European Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Uzar, Umut & Eyuboglu, Kemal, 2025. "Testing the load capacity curve for deforestation: A critical investigation using novel methods for the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Irina Georgescu & Ionuț Nica & Jani Kinnunen, 2024. "Towards Sustainability: Understanding Norway’s Ecological Footprint Through the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-26, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Irina Georgescu & Jani Kinnunen & Ionuț Nica, 2024. "Assessing Forest Conservation for Finland: An ARDL-Based Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Ayad, Hicham & Hassoun, Salaheddine Sari & Abdelkader, Salim Bourchid & Sallam, Osama Azmi Abddel-Jalil, 2024. "Assessing deforestation in the Brazilian forests: An econometric inquiry into the load capacity curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Tillaguango, Brayan & Alvarado, Rafael & Ahmad, Munir & Rehman, Abdul & Işık, Cem & Chamba, José, 2025. "Impact of agricultural employment, gross domestic product, informal economy, institutional quality on forest cover in Ecuador," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Simona-Vasilica Oprea & Adela Bâra & Irina Alexandra Georgescu, 2025. "Assessing the Dynamics of Ecological Footprint in Relation to Economic and Energy Factors: A Comparative Analysis of Finland and Japan," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(3), pages 11162-11197, September.
    5. Uzar, Umut & Eyuboglu, Kemal, 2025. "Testing the load capacity curve for deforestation: A critical investigation using novel methods for the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Jani Kinnunen & Irina Georgescu & Ionuț Nica, 2024. "Evaluating the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in the STIRPAT Framework for Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Ionuț Nica & Irina Georgescu & Jani Kinnunen, 2024. "Evaluating Renewable Energy’s Role in Mitigating CO 2 Emissions: A Case Study of Solar Power in Finland Using the ARDL Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-29, August.
    9. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    11. Xia, Wanjun & Murshed, Muntasir & Khan, Zeeshan & Chen, Zhenling & Ferraz, Diogo, 2022. "Exploring the nexus between fiscal decentralization and energy poverty for China: Does country risk matter for energy poverty reduction?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Wang, Yi-Hsien & Lee, Jun-De, 2012. "Estimating the import demand function for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2591-2596.
    14. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Environmental Kuznets curve in an open economy: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 325-336.
    16. Koçak, Emrah & Önderol, Seyit & Khan, Kamran, 2021. "Structural change, modernization, total factor productivity, and natural resources sustainability: An assessment with quantile and non-quantile estimators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    18. Pablo-Romero, María P. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Gil-Pérez, Jesús, 2023. "Is deforestation needed for growth? Testing the EKC hypothesis for Latin America," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Asif Raihan, 2023. "An econometric evaluation of the effects of economic growth, energy use, and agricultural value added on carbon dioxide emissions in Vietnam," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 665-696, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:13:p:5297-:d:1419743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.