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Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields

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  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
    Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Toshichika Iizumi

    (Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Research Organization, Tsukuba 305-8604, Japan)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Jun’ya Takakura

    (Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Kiyoshi Takahashi

    (Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Yasuaki Hijioka

    (Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

Abstract

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are (1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially explicit information), (2) the amplitude of the CO 2 fertilization effect, (3) the use of different climate models, (4) socioeconomic assumptions and (5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02–0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population size, low income, and low yield development than in an optimistic scenario characterized by a small population size, high income, and high yield development (0.00%).

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshichika Iizumi & Tomoko Hasegawa & Jun’ya Takakura & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3673-:d:175538
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    Cited by:

    1. Daoping Wang & Katie Jenkins & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Tianyang Lei & Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Gabriele Standardi, 2023. "Exploring market-driven adaptation to climate change in a general equilibrium global trade model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 1-29, February.
    3. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    4. Yoji Kunimitsu & Gen Sakurai & Toshichika Iizumi, 2020. "Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall, 2020. "The critical role of conversion cost and comparative advantage in modeling agricultural land use change," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304204, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Suminori Tokunaga & Mitsuru Okiyama & Maria Ikegawa, 2020. "Effects of climate change on depopulating regional economies through changes in Japan’s rice production and recovery policies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 691-712, October.
    7. Osamu Nishiura & Makoto Tamura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Junya Takakura & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Alisa Ableeva & Guzel Salimova & Rasul Gusmanov & Tatyana Lubova & Oleg Efimov & Almira Farrahetdinova, 2019. "The Role of Agriculture in the Formation of Macroeconomic Indicators of National Economy," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(4), pages 183-193.
    9. Xin Zhao & Katherine V. Calvin & Marshall A. Wise, 2020. "The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-44, February.
    10. Wu, Wenchao & Hasegawa, Tomoko & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Takahashi, Kiyoshi & Oshiro, Ken, 2020. "Assessment of bioenergy potential and associated costs in Japan for the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 308-321.

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