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Future Hydrogen Markets for Transportation and Industry: The Impact of CO 2 Taxes

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  • Simonas Cerniauskas

    (Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Techno-Economic System Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52425 Jülich, Germany
    RWTH Aachen University, c/o Techno-Economic System Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52425 Jülich, Germany)

  • Thomas Grube

    (Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Techno-Economic System Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52425 Jülich, Germany)

  • Aaron Praktiknjo

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustr. 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany
    JARA-ENERGY, 52425 Jülich, Germany)

  • Detlef Stolten

    (Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Techno-Economic System Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52425 Jülich, Germany
    RWTH Aachen University, c/o Techno-Economic System Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52425 Jülich, Germany)

  • Martin Robinius

    (Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Techno-Economic System Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52425 Jülich, Germany
    JARA-ENERGY, 52056 Aachen, Germany)

Abstract

The technological lock-in of the transportation and industrial sector can be largely attributed to the limited availability of alternative fuel infrastructures. Herein, a countrywide supply chain analysis of Germany, spanning until 2050, is applied to investigate promising infrastructure development pathways and associated hydrogen distribution costs for each analyzed hydrogen market. Analyzed supply chain pathways include seasonal storage to balance fluctuating renewable power generation with necessary purification, as well as trailer- and pipeline-based hydrogen delivery. The analysis encompasses green hydrogen feedstock in the chemical industry and fuel cell-based mobility applications, such as local buses, non-electrified regional trains, material handling vehicles, and trucks, as well as passenger cars. Our results indicate that the utilization of low-cost, long-term storage and improved refueling station utilization have the highest impact during the market introduction phase. We find that public transport and captive fleets offer a cost-efficient countrywide renewable hydrogen supply roll-out option. Furthermore, we show that, at comparable effective carbon tax resulting from the current energy tax rates in Germany, hydrogen is cost-competitive in the transportation sector by the year 2025. Moreover, we show that sector-specific CO 2 taxes are required to provide a cost-competitive green hydrogen supply in both the transportation and industrial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonas Cerniauskas & Thomas Grube & Aaron Praktiknjo & Detlef Stolten & Martin Robinius, 2019. "Future Hydrogen Markets for Transportation and Industry: The Impact of CO 2 Taxes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4707-:d:296287
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    5. Li, Jinpei & Huang, Yixuan & Zhang, Chunqin & Yao, Di, 2025. "How does public transport development contribute to carbon emission reduction?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    10. Jabir Ali Ouassou & Julian Straus & Marte Fodstad & Gunhild Reigstad & Ove Wolfgang, 2021. "Applying endogenous learning models in energy system optimization," Papers 2106.06373, arXiv.org.
    11. Jianjun Ye & Zhenhua Zhao & Jinyang Zheng & Shehab Salem & Jiangcun Yu & Junxu Cui & Xiaoyi Jiao, 2020. "Transient Flow Characteristic of High-Pressure Hydrogen Gas in Check Valve during the Opening Process," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    12. Santanu Kumar Dash & Suprava Chakraborty & Michele Roccotelli & Umesh Kumar Sahu, 2022. "Hydrogen Fuel for Future Mobility: Challenges and Future Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Pegah Mirzania & Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan & Henrik Rothe & Guy Gratton, 2025. "Navigating Barriers to Decarbonisation of UK’s Aviation Sector Through Green Hydrogen: A Multi-Scale Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-27, June.
    14. Colbertaldo, P. & Cerniauskas, S. & Grube, T. & Robinius, M. & Stolten, D. & Campanari, S., 2020. "Clean mobility infrastructure and sector integration in long-term energy scenarios: The case of Italy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Santanu Kumar Dash & Suprava Chakraborty & Devaraj Elangovan, 2023. "A Brief Review of Hydrogen Production Methods and Their Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Asghari, Mohammad & Afshari, Hamid & Jaber, Mohamad Y. & Searcy, Cory, 2025. "Strategic analysis of hydrogen market dynamics across collaboration models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    17. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada, 2021. "Political Economy of Green Hydrogen Rollout: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Li, Chengzhe & Zhang, Libo & Ou, Zihan & Ma, Jiayu, 2022. "Using system dynamics to evaluate the impact of subsidy policies on green hydrogen industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

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