The performance of traditional macroeconomic models of businesses' investment spending
The rate of capital formation by businesses has long been among the most closely watched elements of the national accounts. During the last decade, this component of investment attracted considerable interest as capital spending helped support our uncommonly high rate of economic growth. Not only did this spending lift the growth of aggregate demand, it also increased our capacity for supplying goods and services, which in turn could allow output to continue growing rapidly in the future. ; This article analyzes the performance of conventional models of investment spending by comparing their abilities to describe this spending from 1960 to 1990 as well as their abilities to forecast spending during the 1990s. The authors find that recent shifts in the composition of the stock of capital goods and in the relative prices of capital goods have undermined the performance of these models of aggregate spending. In many ways, aggregate capital spending seems to depend more heavily than it has in the past on industries' unique circumstances and changing technologies. The authors suggest that errors of the models, the changing composition of capital, and new methods of measuring the stocks of capital warrant considering more disaggregated descriptions of investment spending.
Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210|
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Abel, Andrew B., 1980. "Empirical investment equations : An integrative framework," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 39-91, January.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Blackorby, Charles & Schworm, William, 1988. "The Existence of Input and Output Aggregates in Aggregate Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 613-643, May.
- Fisher, Franklin M, 1969. "The Existence of Aggregate Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 553-577, October.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989.
"Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986.
"The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment,"
Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-273, March.
- Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1983. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," NBER Working Papers 1122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin, 1972.
"Is Growth Obsolete?,"
in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 5, Economic Growth, pages 1-80
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1991. "Generalized Q Models for Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 383-392, August.
- Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, "undated".
"Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Abel, Andrew B., 1952-, 1995. "Options, the value of capital, and investment," Working papers 3843-95., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1995. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Milka Kirova & Robert E. Lipsey, 1998.
"Measuring real investment: trends in the United States and international comparisons,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-18.
- Milka S. Kirova & Robert S. Lipsey, 1998. "Measuring Real Investment: Trends in the United States and International Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 6404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1990.
"Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
3307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
- Stewart Myers, 1989. "Still searching for optimal capital structure," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 33, pages 80-105.
- Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
- Morrison, Catherine J, 1992. "Unraveling the Productivity Growth Slowdown in the United States, Canada and Japan: The Effects of Subequilibrium, Scale Economies and Markups," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 381-393, August.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-1171, September.
- Charles R. Hulten, 1991. "The Measurement of Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Fifty Years of Economic Measurement: The Jubilee of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, pages 119-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2001:p:3-39:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.