The determinants of business investment: has capital spending been surprisingly low?
Many are worried that since 1980 capital investment by businesses has been lower than expected. Unusual circumstances, such as changes in savings patterns or in business leverage, a credit crunch, or widespread adoption of a shorter-term outlook, have been suggested as culprits. To see whether investment spending has indeed departed from its traditional determinants, this article compares capital spending during the 1980s and early 1990s with projections of spending derived from historical relationships between investment and various measures of economic activity. ; The results show that capital investment has not been low for any surprising reasons; in general, business investment has adhered fairly well to its historical correspondence with output, profits, and the cost of capital. Investment in equipment behaved as the models predicted, while investment in nonresidential structures exceeded the models’ forecasts in the early eighties, in large part as a result of the construction of oil rigs and a commercial real estate boom. The author concludes that the disappointing volume of capital investment by businesses of late is a symptom of slow economic growth, not exceptional impediments.
Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): Jan ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210|
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1964. "Tax Deductibility of Economic Depreciation to Insure Invariant Valuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 604.
- Tobin, James, 1982.
"Money and Finance in the Macroeconomic Process,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 171-204, May.
- James Tobin, 1982. "Money and Finance in the Macro-Economic Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 613R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tobin, James, 1981. "Money and Finance in the Macro-Economic Process," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1981-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Kiviet, Jan F & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "Bias of SDE 2 in the Linear Regression Model with Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 362-65, May.
- Balasko, Yves, 1984. "The Size of Dynamic Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 123-41, January.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1991.
"Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
- Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1990. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Plosser, C.I., 1989.
"Understanding Real Business Cycles,"
RCER Working Papers
198, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Fisher, Franklin M, 1969. "The Existence of Aggregate Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 553-77, October.
- Barry P. Bosworth, 1985. "Taxes and the Investment Recovery," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 1-45.
- William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin, 1973.
"Is Growth Obsolete?,"
in: The Measurement of Economic and Social Performance, pages 509-564
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blackorby, Charles & Schworm, William, 1988. "The Existence of Input and Output Aggregates in Aggregate Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 613-43, May.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September.
- Morrison, Catherine J, 1992. "Unraveling the Productivity Growth Slowdown in the United States, Canada and Japan: The Effects of Subequilibrium, Scale Economies and Markups," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 381-93, August.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1993:i:jan:p:3-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.