IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fan/efeefe/vhtml10.3280-efe2025-002006.html

From ambition to reality: Exploring diffusion patterns of battery electric cars in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Bonacina
  • Mert Demir
  • Antonio Sileo
  • Angela Zanoni

Abstract

Electrification of individual mobility is pivotal to Europe?s decarbonization strategy. Italy?s participation in this trajectory is significant, given the size of its car fleet. The final update of Italy?s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) sets ambitious targets of 4.3 million fullelectric cars (BEVs) and 2.3 million plugin hybrid cars (PHEVs) on the roads by 2030. However, by the end of 2024, Italy had only about 280,000 BEVs, representing 0.7% of the total car fleet and 7% of the 2030 target. This study aims to assess the potential for BEV penetration in Italy in the coming years and evaluate the alignment of current adoption trends with the NECP target. Diffusion projections are made using Bass and logistic models under two different scenarios. Both scenarios suggest that, without substantial changes, the current diffusion path may fall short of meeting the NECP 2030 target. Although some barriers to the adoption of fullelectric vehicles have been addressed, new challenges have arisen. Accelerating the replacement of durable goods, including internal combustion engine vehicles, is unrealistic, and the decarbonization strategy, as outlined in Regulation (EU) 851/2023, is expected to extend beyond the original timeframe, requiring adjustments to the current strategic plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Bonacina & Mert Demir & Antonio Sileo & Angela Zanoni, 2025. "From ambition to reality: Exploring diffusion patterns of battery electric cars in Italy," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2025(2), pages 109-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:fan:efeefe:v:html10.3280/efe2025-002006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/Scheda_Rivista.aspx?IDArticolo=78758&Tipo=ArticoloPDF
    Download Restriction: Single articles can be downloaded buying download credits, for info: https://www.francoangeli.it/DownloadCredit
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Bento & Kevin Roth & Yiou Zuo, 2018. "Vehicle Lifetime and Scrappage Behavior: Trends in the U.S. Used Car Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 159-184, January.
    2. Federico Miconi & Giovanna Maria Dimitri, 2023. "A machine learning approach to analyse and predict the electric cars scenario: The Italian case," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    4. Lee, Sangwon & Marcu, Mircea & Lee, Seonmi, 2011. "An empirical analysis of fixed and mobile broadband diffusion," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 227-233.
    5. Turk, Tomaž & Trkman, Peter, 2012. "Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-96.
    6. Alan Greenspan & Darrel Cohen, 1999. "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 369-383, August.
    7. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    8. Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
    9. Martino Tran & David Banister & Justin D. K. Bishop & Malcolm D. McCulloch, 2012. "Realizing the electric-vehicle revolution," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 328-333, May.
    10. Dalla Chiara, Bruno & Deflorio, Francesco & Eid, Marco, 2019. "Analysis of real driving data to explore travelling needs in relation to hybrid–electric vehicle solutions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 97-116.
    11. Cristian Domarchi & Elisabetta Cherchi, 2023. "Electric vehicle forecasts: a review of models and methods including diffusion and substitution effects," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 1118-1143, November.
    12. Rogers, Everett M, 1976. "New Product Adoption and Diffusion," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 2(4), pages 290-301, March.
    13. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    14. repec:aen:journl:ej39-1-bento is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    16. Bonus, Holger, 1973. "Quasi-Engel Curves, Diffusion, and the Ownership of Major Consumer Durables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 655-677, May-June.
    17. V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
    18. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Guha, Pritha & Chakraborty, Abhishek, 2022. "Comparative assessment and selection of electric vehicle diffusion models: A global outlook," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    19. Leonardo Bitencourt & Tiago Abud & Rachel Santos & Bruno Borba, 2021. "Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonacina, Monica & Demir, Mert & Sileo, Antonio & Zanoni, Angela, 2024. "The slow lane: a study on the diffusion of full-electric cars in Italy," FEEM Working Papers 344135, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Monica Bonacina & Mert Demir & Antonio Sileo & Angela Zanoni, 2024. "The slow lane: a study on the diffusion of full-electric cars in Italy," Working Papers 2024.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Xueying Liu & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Get Ready for Take-Off: A Two-Stage Model of Aircraft Market Diffusion," FCN Working Papers 15/2019, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    5. Singhal, Shakshi & Bano, Yasmeen & Gautam, Prerna, 2026. "Changepoint model for energy-efficient technology diffusion: A comparative evaluation of empirical models," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Krishnan, Trichy V. & Feng, Shanfei & Jain, Dipak C., 2023. "Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Guven, Denizhan & Kayalica, M. Ozgur & Bozdag, C. Erhan, 2026. "Assessing policy interventions for electric vehicle adoption through an agent-based environmental framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 407(C).
    9. Brito, Thiago Luis Felipe & Islam, Towhidul & Stettler, Marc & Mouette, Dominique & Meade, Nigel & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson, 2019. "Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Kivi, Antero & Smura, Timo & Töyli, Juuso, 2012. "Technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 107-126.
    11. Singhal, Shakshi & Anand, Adarsh & Singh, Ompal, 2020. "Studying dynamic market size-based adoption modeling & product diffusion under stochastic environment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Franses, Philip Hans, 2021. "Modeling box office revenues of motion pictures✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    13. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    14. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2019. "Modeling Technological Substitution by Incorporating Dynamic Adoption Rate," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 1-24, February.
    15. Lee, Hakyeon & Kim, Sang Gook & Park, Hyun-woo & Kang, Pilsung, 2014. "Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-64.
    16. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-51, March.
    17. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Technology diffusion model with change in adoption rate and repeat purchases: a case of consumer balking," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 12(1), pages 29-36, February.
    18. Dong, Changgui & Sigrin, Benjamin & Brinkman, Gregory, 2017. "Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 251-265.
    19. Shi, Xiaohui & Li, Feng & Bigdeli, Ali Ziaee, 2016. "An examination of NPD models in the context of business models," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 2541-2550.
    20. Yoon Seong Kim & Eun Jin Han & So Young Sohn, 2017. "Demand Forecasting for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Considering Emission Regulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fan:efeefe:v:html10.3280/efe2025-002006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefania Rosato (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/sommario.aspx?IDRivista=10 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.