From ambition to reality: Exploring diffusion patterns of battery electric cars in Italy

Electrification of individual mobility is pivotal to Europe?s decarbonization strategy. Italy?s participation in this trajectory is significant, given the size of its car fleet. The final update of Italy?s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) sets ambitious targets of 4.3 million fullelectric cars (BEVs) and 2.3 million plugin hybrid cars (PHEVs) on the roads by 2030. However, by the end of 2024, Italy had only about 280,000 BEVs, representing 0.7% of the total car fleet and 7% of the 2030 target. This study aims to assess the potential for BEV penetration in Italy in the coming years and evaluate the alignment of current adoption trends with the NECP target. Diffusion projections are made using Bass and logistic models under two different scenarios. Both scenarios suggest that, without substantial changes, the current diffusion path may fall short of meeting the NECP 2030 target. Although some barriers to the adoption of fullelectric vehicles have been addressed, new challenges have arisen. Accelerating the replacement of durable goods, including internal combustion engine vehicles, is unrealistic, and the decarbonization strategy, as outlined in Regulation (EU) 851/2023, is expected to extend beyond the original timeframe, requiring adjustments to the current strategic plan.