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Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study

Author

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  • Leonardo Bitencourt

    (Electrical Energy Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil)

  • Tiago Abud

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil)

  • Rachel Santos

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil)

  • Bruno Borba

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil)

Abstract

The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) has been rising in recent years, and public policies can play an important role in this scene. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of public policies in the diffusion of EVs in Brazil, based on Beck’s adaptation for the Bass diffusion model. This modification on the Bass model allows the estimation of EV diffusion, taking into account the direct and indirect economic influence of the main EV incentive instruments used worldwide. In addition, this work conducts a forecast of the total passenger cars in Brazil through a regression model, considering macroeconomic and social indicators. The results indicate that EV high prices may still be the major barrier for EV diffusion in Brazil over the studied horizon, keeping them inaccessible to the majority of the population. Therefore, policies aimed at subsidizing EVs may be more effective in stimulating EV sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Bitencourt & Tiago Abud & Rachel Santos & Bruno Borba, 2021. "Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:17:p:5435-:d:626897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Grangeia, Carolina & Santos, Luan & Ferreira, Daniel Viana & Guimarães, Raphael & de Magalhães Ozorio, Luiz & Tavares, Arthur, 2023. "Energy transition scenarios in the transportation sector in Brazil: Contributions from the electrical mobility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Roman Chinoracky & Natalia Stalmasekova & Tatiana Corejova, 2022. "Trends in the Field of Electromobility—From the Perspective of Market Characteristics and Value-Added Services: Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Shi, Hui & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2025. "Are past ownership experience and satisfaction major determinants of endorsement and future demand for zero emission vehicle technology when accounting for vehicle characteristics?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Monica Bonacina & Mert Demir & Antonio Sileo & Angela Zanoni, 2024. "The slow lane: a study on the diffusion of full-electric cars in Italy," Working Papers 2024.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Bonacina, Monica & Demir, Mert & Sileo, Antonio & Zanoni, Angela, 2024. "The slow lane: a study on the diffusion of full-electric cars in Italy," FEEM Working Papers 344135, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Min Zhao & Yu Fang & Debao Dai, 2023. "Forecast of the Evolution Trend of Total Vehicle Sales and Power Structure of China under Different Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, February.

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