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Prospects for the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China

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  • Guo, Xiaopeng
  • Li, Wenjing
  • Ren, Dongfang
  • Chu, Junhui

Abstract

Optimizing the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles represents a pivotal approach to reducing carbon emissions in the transportation sector. Despite China's aspirations for promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles a concrete nationwide promotion plan remains elusive. To address this gap, the present study leverages the generalized Bass diffusion model, enriched with external factors such as hydrogen refueling station infrastructure expansion and potential price reductions. Employing Anylogic's system dynamics simulation capabilities, we have devised a predictive model tailored to China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market dynamics. Through meticulous simulation under three distinct scenarios, our findings underscore that under the generalized Bass framework, the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market in China exhibits rapid diffusion, with a projected cumulative demand reaching 49,900 units by 2025. Further, we conducted sensitivity analyses on key parameters—the innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient, facility factor, and price elasticity—to disentangle the intricate interplay between internal and external factors driving market penetration. This comprehensive analysis not only provides valuable insights into the nuanced dynamics of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle adoption but also serves as a strategic compass for policymakers, automobile manufacturers, and investors. By illuminating the pathways to accelerate market maturation, our study aims to contribute significantly to the advancement of China's hydrogen economy and the global transition towards sustainable transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Xiaopeng & Li, Wenjing & Ren, Dongfang & Chu, Junhui, 2025. "Prospects for the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:240:y:2025:i:c:s0960148124022997
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Renzhi Lyu & Zhenpo Wang & Zhaosheng Zhang, 2025. "Life Cycle Assessment Based on Whole Industry Chain Assessment of FCEVs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-23, June.

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