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Motor vehicle stocks, scrappage, and sales

  • Alan Greenspan
  • Darrel Cohen

This paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences," new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1996/199640/199640pap.pdf
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 96-40.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-40
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  1. James Berkovec, 1985. "New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 195-214, Summer.
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