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New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market

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  • James Berkovec

Abstract

This article develops a short-run general equilibrium model of the automobile market by combining a discrete choice model of consumer automobile demand with simple models of new automobile production and used vehicle scrappage. The theoretical model allows an unlimited degree of heterogeneity of both consumers and automobiles, with equilibrium defined as aggregate demand equal to supply for every vehicle type. Econometric estimates of the scrappage and demand functions are then used to create a simulation model of the automobile market, which is used to provide forecasts of automobile sales, stocks, and scrappage for the 1978-1990 period.

Suggested Citation

  • James Berkovec, 1985. "New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 195-214, Summer.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:16:y:1985:i:summer:p:195-214
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    1. Baumol, William J, 1982. "Contestable Markets: An Uprising in the Theory of Industry Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 1-15, March.
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    6. John C. Panzar & Robert D. Willig, 1977. "Free Entry and the Sustainability of Natural Monopoly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, Spring.
    7. William W. Sharkey, 1981. "Existence of Sustainable Prices for Natural Monopoly Outputs," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 144-154, Spring.
    8. Faulhaber, Gerald R & Levinson, Stephen B, 1981. "Subsidy-Free Prices and Anonymous Equity [Cross-Subsidization: Pricing in Public Enterprises]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1083-1091, December.
    9. Baumol, William J & Bailey, Elizabeth E & Willig, Robert D, 1977. "Weak Invisible Hand Theorems on the Sustainability of Multiproduct Natural Monopoly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 350-365, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franco Mariuzzo, 2005. "The Efect of Differences in Buyer and Non-Buyer Characteristics on Equilibrium Price-Elasticities: an Empirical Study on the Italian Automobile Market," Trinity Economics Papers tep13, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Konishi, Hideo & Sandfort, Michael T., 2002. "Existence of stationary equilibrium in the markets for new and used durable goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1029-1052.
    3. Beser Hugosson, Muriel & Algers, Staffan & Habibi, Shiva & Sundbergh, Pia, 2016. "Evaluation of the Swedish car fleet model using recent applications," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 30-40.
    4. Zijun Luo & Yonghong Zhou, 2016. "Gainers and Losers of Political Instability: Evidence from the Anti-Japanese Demonstration in China," Working Papers 1608, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    5. Saito, Richard, 2003. "Quality Differentiation of Durable Goods in Secondary Markets," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(2), April.
    6. Antonio M Bento & Lawrence H Goulder & Emeric Henry & Mark R Jacobsen & Roger H. Von Haefen, 2005. "Distributional and efficiency impacts of gasoline taxes," Post-Print hal-01045097, HAL.
    7. Wayne Dunham, 2003. "Moral Hazard and the Market for Used Automobiles," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 23(1), pages 65-83, August.
    8. Harald J. van Heerde & Shuba Srinivasan & Marnik G. Dekimpe, 2010. "Estimating Cannibalization Rates for Pioneering Innovations," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 1024-1039, 11-12.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10084 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Eduardo P. S. Fiuza, 2015. "Automobile Demand and Supply in Brazil: Effects of Tax Rebates and Trade Liberalization on Price-marginal Cost Markups in the 1990s," Discussion Papers 0119, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    11. Alan Greenspan & Darrel Cohen, 1999. "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 369-383, August.
    12. Antonio M. Bento & Lawrence H. Goulder & Emeric Henry & Mark R. Jacobsen & Roger H. von Haefen, 2005. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Gasoline Taxes: An Econometrically Based Multi-market Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 282-287, May.
    13. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep13 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Rampini, Adriano A., 2007. "New or used? Investment with credit constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2656-2681, November.
    15. West, Sarah E., 2004. "Distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 735-757, March.
    16. Yalç{i}n Akçay & Harihara Prasad Natarajan & Susan H. Xu, 2010. "Joint Dynamic Pricing of Multiple Perishable Products Under Consumer Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1345-1361, August.
    17. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Markellos, Raphael N., 2015. "Dynamic interaction between markets for leasing and selling automobiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 260-270.
    18. Beser Hugosson, Muriel & Algers, Staffan & Habibi, Shiva & Sundbergh, Pia, 2014. "The Swedish car fleet model: evaluation of recent applications," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:18, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 10 Nov 2014.
    19. Cagri Saglam & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2008. "Role of Endogenous Vintage Specific Depreciation in the Optimal Behavior of Firms," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(3), pages 381-410.

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