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Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales

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  • Darrel Cohen
  • Alan Greenspan

Abstract

This paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer \"preferences,\" new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Darrel Cohen & Alan Greenspan, "undated". "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1996-40
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1996/199640/199640pap.pdf
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