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The Cyclicality of Irish Fiscal Policy Ex-Ante and Ex-Post

Author

Listed:
  • David Cronin

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Kieran McQuinn

    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

Abstract

The cyclicality of fiscal policy in Ireland in the budgetary plans put before parliament and ex-post is considered. Data in budgetary documents and particular econometric estimation procedures help address endogeneity issues and provide numerous variable-estimation procedure combinations for assessing cyclicality. Fiscal policy in Ireland is found to be pro-cyclical on both ex-ante and ex-post bases. The evidence is mixed between policy being more pro-cyclical ex-post than was intended at Budget time and there being no difference. With the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact now applying to Ireland, a continuation of pro-cyclical fiscal policy would endanger its requirements being met.

Suggested Citation

  • David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2018. "The Cyclicality of Irish Fiscal Policy Ex-Ante and Ex-Post," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(1), pages 1-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:49:y:2018:i:1:p:1-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    fiscal policy; budget; Ireland;

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