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The cyclicality of Irish fiscal policy ex-ante and ex-post

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  • Cronin, David
  • McQuinn, Kieran

Abstract

The cyclicality of fiscal policy in Ireland in the budgetary plans put before parliament and ex-post is considered. Data in budgetary documents and particular econometric estimation procedures help address endogeneity issues and provide numerous variable-estimation procedure combinations for assessing cyclicality. Fiscal policy in Ireland is found to be pro-cyclical on both ex-ante and ex-post bases. The evidence is mixed between policy being more pro-cyclical ex-post than was intended at Budget time and there being no difference. With the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact now applying to Ireland, a continuation of pro-cyclical fiscal policy would endanger its requirements being met.
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  • Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "The cyclicality of Irish fiscal policy ex-ante and ex-post," Papers WP581, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp581
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    3. de Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2024. "Efficiency–equity trade-off in the Irish carbon tax: A CGE investigation of mixed revenue recycling schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Yakut, Aykut Mert & de Bruin, Kelly, 2023. "The importance of having a more realistic welfare transfer determination rule: A CGE analysis for Ireland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1310-1325.
    5. Kate Ivory & Eddie Casey & Niall Conroy, 2020. "Ireland’s Fiscal Spending Multipliers," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 51(1), pages 133-172.
    6. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2021. "The (pro-) cyclicality of government consumption in the EU and official expectations of future output growth: new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 331-345, May.
    7. De Bruin, Kelly C & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2019. "The effects of an incremental increase in the Irish carbon tax towards 2030," Papers WP619, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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