A Structural Approach for Testing Causality
The ever present possibility of confounding factors creates difficulties in identifying causal effects on the basis of observational data. A large number of approaches to resolve this difficulty have been proposed; see Zaman (2010) for a recent survey. One involves using a "natural experiment" where nature acts like an experimenter in changing the setting of a key variable, allowing us to differentiate between "treatment" and "control" observations. This idea has been used by Hendry and Ericsson (1991), Hoover (2001), and Keane (2010) in rather complex settings. This paper presents an elementary version of this structural approach for detecting causality in the simplest possible setting. The structural method is able to detect contemporaneous causality. We illustrate the uses of this technique on a simulated data set, and also apply it to the export-led growth hypothesis for India and energy-growth data for Shanghai.
Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Sairler Sokak, No:32/C, Gaziosmanpasa, Ankara, Turkey|
Phone: + 90 312 447 51 95
Fax: + 90 312 447 51 95
Web page: http://www.era.org.tr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hoover, Kevin D., 2004. "Lost Causes," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 149-164, June.
- Keane, Michael P., 2010. "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 3-20, May.
- Asad Zaman, 2010.
"Causal Relations via Econometrics,"
International Econometric Review (IER),
Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
- Rust, John, 2010. "Comments on: "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics" by Michael Keane," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 21-24, May.
- Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2004. "Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai, 1952-1999," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-75, January.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, 07.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Blundell, Richard, 2010. "Comments on: Michael P. Keane 'Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics'," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 25-26, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. F. Cosar)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.