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Gasto público y ciclos económicos en México, 1980-2021

Author

Listed:
  • Marlen Rocío Reyes-Hernández

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

  • Pablo Mejía-Reyes

    (Facultad de Economía)

Abstract

En este documento se analizan los efectos de los componentes del gasto público sobre el ciclo económico de México durante el periodo 1980.1-2021.3 mediante la estimación de regresiones bivariadas con cambio estructural. Aunque nuestros resultados difieren en función del método de eliminación de tendencia y el componente particular del gasto, en general se encuentran cambios estructurales en varias de estas relaciones en torno al año 2000, lo que coincide aproximadamente con el tránsito del manejo del gasto con fines “estabilizadores” a uno “prudencial”. Nuestros principales resultados sugieren que el gasto total y el gasto corriente son procíclicos en toda la muestra, mientras que el gasto programable, el de capital y el de inversión son procíclicos en las primeras dos décadas, pero acíclicos o contracíclicos posteriormente. En general, estos hallazgos implican que el gasto público y sus componentes no amortiguan las fluctuaciones cíclicas y que sus efectos son modestos.

Suggested Citation

  • Marlen Rocío Reyes-Hernández & Pablo Mejía-Reyes, 2023. "Gasto público y ciclos económicos en México, 1980-2021," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 42(2), pages 151-182, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:42:y:2023:i:2:id:237
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos42.2-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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