Política fiscal contracíclica en México durante la crisis reciente: Un análisis preliminar

In this document we make a first assessment of the impact of the counter cyclical fiscal measures adopted by Mexico had over the economy during the recent crisis. This is a highly controversial subject, both theoretically and empirically, due to the debate about the multipliers' relevance. Mexico took these actions since the beginning of 2008. However, the composition of these fiscal packages shows among other things, the restrictions faced by our public finances. In order to carry on our analysis we built a counter example through a VAR, to later compare the forecasted base line values for GDP and employment with the observed data. The results suggest that the counter cyclical actions were insufficient in terms of their impact upon GDP and general employment, although our results suggest a favorable progress in terms of the result over private formal employment. Our research offers some useful lessons on the fiscal reform debate.