IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/emx/esteco/v21y2006i1p23-44.html

Thirlwall´s law with an emphasis on the ratio of export/import income elasticities in Latin American economies during the Twentieth Century

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi

    (Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)

Abstract

Using stochastic specifications that emphasize the role of the ratio of export/import income elasticities, this paper applies the balance-of-payments constraint model to nineteen Latin American countries from 1900 to 2000. The paper begins with a brief presentation of Thirlwall's well-known model. Immediately following this, we verify the existence of a long run relationship between developing economies on one hand, and the US economy on the other. To explore the short term evolution of the quantitative link between economies, a time varying model is estimated by means of an algorithm known as a Kalman filter. Mainly, the results show a diminishing the ratio of export/import income elasticities over the years, which represents an unexpected and serious feature of the new economic strategy that has already been implanted in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi, 2006. "Thirlwall´s law with an emphasis on the ratio of export/import income elasticities in Latin American economies during the Twentieth Century," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:21:y:2006:i:1:p:23-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/159/161
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Lora, Eduardo, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3338, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Kelejian, Harry H., 1982. "An extension of a standard test for heteroskedasticity to a systems framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 325-333, November.
    5. Moreno Brid, Juan Carlos & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban, 2003. "Liberalización comercial y crecimiento económico en Centroamérica," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    7. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    9. Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 1997. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1997/132, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    11. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, July.
    12. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," Research Department Publications 4293, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Julio López G. & Alberto Cruz B., 2000. "“Thirlwall’s Law” and Beyond: The Latin American Experience," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 477-495, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Isaac, Sánchez Juárez, 2011. "Una interpretación sobre el bajo crecimiento económico en México [One interpretation of the low economic growth in Mexico]," MPRA Paper 38101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Julen Berasaluce & José Romero, 2017. "Economic growth and the external sector: Evidence from Korea, lessons for Mexico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 32(1), pages 95-131.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    2. Mentz, Markus & Sebastian, Steffen P., 2003. "Inflation convergence after the introduction of the Euro," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortes, 2017. "Balance comercial y volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal: Un estudio de series de tiempo para Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(1), pages 37-58.
    4. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    5. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
    6. Da Silva, Sergio & Nunes, Mauricio, 2007. "Latin American foreign exchange intervention - Updated," MPRA Paper 1982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gökçe, Atilla & Çankal, Erhan, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth model for the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 140-144.
    8. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    9. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    10. Mariano Tommasi & Alvaro Forteza & German Herrera, 2005. "Understanding Reform in Latin America," Working Papers 88, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Dec 2005.
    11. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2013. "Is Physical Investment The Key To China'S Growth Miracle?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1948-1971, October.
    12. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Mauricio Nunes & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Foreign exchange intervention and central bank independence: the Latin American experience," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 379-382.
    14. Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2020. "The PRC's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 163-181.
    15. Irz, Xavier T. & Niemi, Jyrki S. & Xing, Liu, 2011. "Determinants Of Food Price Inflation In Finland," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114460, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Causes of the Decline of Economic Growth in Italy and the Responsibility of EURO: A Balance-of-Payments Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. Birdsall, Nancy & de la Torre, Augusto & Caicedo, Felipe Valencia, 2010. "The Washington consensus : assessing a damaged brand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5316, The World Bank.
    18. Barrientos Quiroga, Paola Andrea, 2013. "Convergence Clubs determined by Economic History in Latin America," MPRA Paper 50191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Nauro F. Campos & Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Growth and Inequality: An Overview of Theory, Measurement and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6812, CESifo.
    20. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2025. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:21:y:2006:i:1:p:23-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ximena Varela (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cecolmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.