IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jpifpp/v31y2013i4p360-389.html

Combining Monte Carlo simulations and options to manage the risk of real estate portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Charles‐Olivier Amédée‐Manesme
  • Fabrice Barthélémy
  • Michel Baroni
  • Etienne Dupuy

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to show that the accuracy of real estate portfolio valuations and of real estate risk management can be improved through the simultaneous use of Monte Carlo simulations and options theory. Design/methodology/approach - The authors' method considers the options embedded in Continental European lease contracts drawn up with tenants who may move before the end of the contract. The authors combine Monte Carlo simulations for both market prices and rental values with an optional model that takes into account a rational tenant's behaviour. They analyze how the options significantly affect the owner's income. Findings - The authors' main findings are that simulated cash flows which take account of such options are more reliable that those usually computed by the traditional method of discounted cash flow. Research limitations/implications - Some limitations are inherent to the authors' model: these include the assumption of the rationality of tenant's decisions and the difficulty of calibrating the model given the lack of data in many markets. Originality/value - The main contribution of the paper is both by accounting for market risk (Monte Carlo simulations for the prices and market rental values) and for accounting for the idiosyncratic risk (the leasing risk).

Suggested Citation

  • Charles‐Olivier Amédée‐Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Michel Baroni & Etienne Dupuy, 2013. "Combining Monte Carlo simulations and options to manage the risk of real estate portfolios," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(4), pages 360-389, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:31:y:2013:i:4:p:360-389
    DOI: 10.1108/JPIF-09-2012-0042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JPIF-09-2012-0042/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JPIF-09-2012-0042/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JPIF-09-2012-0042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & des Rosiers, François & Grégoire, Philippe, 2015. "The pricing of embedded lease options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 215-220.
    2. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    3. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    4. Philipp Bejol & Nicola Livingstone, 2018. "Revisiting currency swaps: hedging real estate investments in global city markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(2), pages 191-209, March.
    5. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Francois Des Rosiers & Philippe Grégoire, 2017. "Commercial leases, terms and options in the light of game theory," ERES eres2017_175, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    6. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy, 2018. "Ex-ante real estate Value at Risk calculation method," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 257-285, March.
    7. Werner Gleißner & Tobias Just & Endre Kamarás, 2017. "Simulationsbasierter Ertragswert als Ergänzung zum Verkehrswert [Simulation-based earnings value as a supplement to the market value]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 3(1), pages 21-48, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:31:y:2013:i:4:p:360-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.