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Combining Monte Carlo simulations and options to manage the risk of real estate portfolios

Author

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  • Charles‐Olivier Amédée‐Manesme
  • Fabrice Barthélémy
  • Michel Baroni
  • Etienne Dupuy

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to show that the accuracy of real estate portfolio valuations and of real estate risk management can be improved through the simultaneous use of Monte Carlo simulations and options theory. Design/methodology/approach - The authors' method considers the options embedded in Continental European lease contracts drawn up with tenants who may move before the end of the contract. The authors combine Monte Carlo simulations for both market prices and rental values with an optional model that takes into account a rational tenant's behaviour. They analyze how the options significantly affect the owner's income. Findings - The authors' main findings are that simulated cash flows which take account of such options are more reliable that those usually computed by the traditional method of discounted cash flow. Research limitations/implications - Some limitations are inherent to the authors' model: these include the assumption of the rationality of tenant's decisions and the difficulty of calibrating the model given the lack of data in many markets. Originality/value - The main contribution of the paper is both by accounting for market risk (Monte Carlo simulations for the prices and market rental values) and for accounting for the idiosyncratic risk (the leasing risk).

Suggested Citation

  • Charles‐Olivier Amédée‐Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Michel Baroni & Etienne Dupuy, 2013. "Combining Monte Carlo simulations and options to manage the risk of real estate portfolios," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(4), pages 360-389, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:31:y:2013:i:4:p:360-389
    DOI: 10.1108/JPIF-09-2012-0042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Hoesli & Elion Jani & André Bender, 2005. "Monte Carlo Simulations for Real Estate Valuation," FAME Research Paper Series rp148, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    2. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2006. "Optimal holding period In Real Estate Portfolio," THEMA Working Papers 2006-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    3. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2004. "Physical Real Estate: A Paris Repeat Sales Residential Index," ESSEC Working Papers DR 04007, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    4. Myers, Stewart C, 1974. "Interactions of Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions-Implications for Capital Budgeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
    8. Larry E. Wofford, 1978. "A Simulation Approach to the Appraisal of Income Producing Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 6(4), pages 370-394, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy, 2018. "Ex-ante real estate Value at Risk calculation method," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 257-285, March.
    2. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    3. Philipp Bejol & Nicola Livingstone, 2018. "Revisiting currency swaps: hedging real estate investments in global city markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(2), pages 191-209, March.
    4. Werner Gleißner & Tobias Just & Endre Kamarás, 2017. "Simulationsbasierter Ertragswert als Ergänzung zum Verkehrswert [Simulation-based earnings value as a supplement to the market value]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 3(1), pages 21-48, April.
    5. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & des Rosiers, François & Grégoire, Philippe, 2015. "The pricing of embedded lease options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 215-220.
    6. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Francois Des Rosiers & Philippe Grégoire, 2017. "Commercial leases, terms and options in the light of game theory," ERES eres2017_175, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    7. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monte Carlo simulation; Real estate portfolio valuation; Break options; Lease structure; Risk management; Risk metrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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