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Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrice Barthélémy

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Luc Prigent

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

This paper examines the properties of optimal times to sell a diversified real estate portfolio. The portfolio value is supposed to be the sum of the discounted free cash flows and the discounted terminal value (the discounted selling price). According to Baroni et al. (Journal of Property Investment and Finance 25(6):603–625, 2007b ), we assume that the terminal value corresponds to the real estate index. The optimization problem corresponds to the maximization of a quasi-linear utility function. We consider three cases. The first one assumes that the investor knows the probability distribution of the real estate index. However, at the initial time, he has to choose one deterministic optimal time to sell. The second one considers an investor who is perfectly informed about the market dynamics. Whatever the random event that generates the path, he knows the entire path from the beginning. Then, given the realization of the random variable, the path is deterministic for this investor. Therefore, at the initial time, he can determine the optimal time to sell for each path of the index. Finally, the last case is devoted to the analysis of the intertemporal optimization, based on the American option approach. We compute the optimal solution for each of these three cases and compare their properties. The comparison is also made with the buy-and-hold strategy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," Post-Print hal-03679715, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03679715
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9122-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Brent W. Ambrose & Eva Steiner, 2022. "Economic Fundamentals, Capital Expenditures and Asset Dispositions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 361-378, April.
    2. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    3. Charles‐Olivier Amédée‐Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Michel Baroni & Etienne Dupuy, 2013. "Combining Monte Carlo simulations and options to manage the risk of real estate portfolios," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(4), pages 360-389, July.
    4. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    5. Fabrice Barthelemy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2011. "Real Estate Portfolio Management : Optimization under Risk Aversion," Thema Working Papers 2011-12, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    6. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2016. "Real estate investment: Market volatility and optimal holding period under risk aversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 543-555.
    7. Jing-Tang Tsay & Che-Chun Lin & Jerry T. Yang, 2018. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities-First Hitting Time Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 419-446.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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