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Optimal holding period for a real estate portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Baroni
  • Fabrice Barthélémy
  • Mahdi Mokrane

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to offer a framework for computing optimal investment holding periods for real estate portfolios. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis is set within a standard DCF modelling framework and it is shown that it is not adapted to offer sufficient insight into the mechanics leading to optimal holding periods. A richer framework is offered that enables the portfolios terminal value to behave according to a simple diffusion process. Findings - The findings show that optimal holding periods for real estate investment portfolios exist within very precise conditions. The key parameters are the investor's weighted average cost of capital (WACC), the cash flow growth rate during the investment period, and the investment's net initial yield. The key finding is (loosely speaking) that, if the investor's cost of capital is outpaced by (the sum of) the portfolio's net initial yield and the cash flow growth rate, then an optimal holding period exists and can be precisely computed. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate these findings. Originality/value - Standard financial theory does not specify a consistent methodology for choosing the optimal investment horizon in investment analysis and in particular in discounted cash flow (DCF) modelling. This problem may be particularly acute in real estate investment analysis and valuation, as investment horizons are often arbitrarily chosen. The paper proves that investment horizon may strongly influence net present value.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2007. "Optimal holding period for a real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(6), pages 603-625, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:25:y:2007:i:6:p:603-625
    DOI: 10.1108/14635780710829306
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
    2. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    3. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    4. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, June.
    5. Fabrice Barthelemy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2011. "Real Estate Portfolio Management : Optimization under Risk Aversion," Thema Working Papers 2011-12, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    6. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2016. "Real estate investment: Market volatility and optimal holding period under risk aversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 543-555.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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