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Optimal Holding Period for a Real Estate Portfolio

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Abstract

This paper considers the use of simulated cash flows to determine the optimal holding period of a real estate portfolio to maximize its present value. The traditional DCF approach with an estimation of the resale value through a growth rate of the future cash flow does not let appear this optimum. However, if the terminal value is calculated from the trend of a diffusion process of the price, an optimum may appear under certain conditions. Finally we consider the sensitivity of the present value to the different parameters involved in the cash flow estimations.

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  • Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2007. "Optimal Holding Period for a Real Estate Portfolio," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-07008
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    1. Martin Hoesli & Elion Jani & André Bender, 2005. "Monte Carlo Simulations for Real Estate Valuation," FAME Research Paper Series rp148, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    2. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2004. "Physical Real Estate: A Paris Repeat Sales Residential Index," ESSEC Working Papers DR 04007, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    3. Atkins, Allen B & Dyl, Edward A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Holding Periods for Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 309-325, March.
    4. Patric H. Hendershott & David C. Ling, 1984. "Prospective Changes in Tax Law and the Value of Depreciable Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 297-317, September.
    5. Seha M. Tinic, 1972. "The Economics of Liquidity Services," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(1), pages 79-93.
    6. Gau, George W & Wang, Ko, 1994. "The Tax-Induced Holding Periods of Real Estate Investors: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 71-85, January.
    7. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    2. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    3. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
    4. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2016. "Real estate investment: Market volatility and optimal holding period under risk aversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 543-555.
    5. Fabrice Barthelemy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2011. "Real Estate Portfolio Management : Optimization under Risk Aversion," THEMA Working Papers 2011-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash Flows Simulations; Holding Period; Real Estate Portfolio Management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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