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Combining Monte Carlo Simulations and Options to Manage the Risk of Real Estate Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Michel Baroni

    (Finance Department - Essec Business School)

  • Fabrice Barthélémy

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Etienne Dupuy

    (Real Estate Investment Services - BNP-Paribas)

Abstract

This paper aims to show that the accuracy of real estate portfolio valuations can be improved through the simultaneous use of Monte Carlo simulations and options theory. Our method considers the options embedded in Continental European lease contracts drawn up with tenants who may move before the end of the contract. We combine Monte Carlo simulations for both market prices and rental values with an optional model that takes into account a rational tenant's behavior. We analyze to what extent the options exercised by the tenant significantly affect the owner's income. Our main findings are that simulated cash flows which take account of such options are more reliable that those usually computed by the traditional method of discounted cash flow. Moreover, this approach provides interesting metrics, such as the distribution of cash flows. The originality of this research lies in the possibility of taking the structure of the lease into account. In practice this model could be used by professionals to improve the relevance of their valuations: the output as a distribution of outcomes should be of interest to investors. However, some limitations are inherent to our model: these include the assumption of the rationality of tenant's decisions, and the difficulty of calibrating the model, given the lack of data. After a brief literature review of simulation methods used for real estate valuation, the paper describes the suggested simulation model, its main assumptions, and the incorporation of tenant's decisions regarding break options influencing the cash flows. Finally, using an empirical example, we analyze the sensitivity of the model to various parameters, test its robustness and note some limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Etienne Dupuy, 2011. "Combining Monte Carlo Simulations and Options to Manage the Risk of Real Estate Portfolios," Post-Print hal-00671067, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00671067
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-essec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00671067
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2004. "Physical Real Estate: A Paris Repeat Sales Residential Index," ESSEC Working Papers DR 04007, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    2. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
    3. Martin Hoesli & Elion Jani & André Bender, 2005. "Monte Carlo Simulations for Real Estate Valuation," FAME Research Paper Series rp148, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    4. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2006. "Optimal holding period In Real Estate Portfolio," THEMA Working Papers 2006-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy, 2018. "Ex-ante real estate Value at Risk calculation method," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 257-285, March.
    2. repec:hal:journl:hal-01070033 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    4. repec:spr:gjorer:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1365_s41056-017-0018-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Francois Des Rosiers & Philippe Grégoire, 2017. "Commercial leases, terms and options in the light of game theory," ERES eres2017_175, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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