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Optimal holding period In Real Estate Portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Baroni

    () (ESSEC Business School)

  • Fabrice Barthélémy

    () (Université de Cergy-Pontoise (Théma))

  • Mahdi Mokrane

    () (IXIS-AEW Europe)

Abstract

This paper considers the use of simulated cash flows to determine the optimal holding period in real estate portfolio to maximize its present value. The traditional DCF approach with an estimation of the resale value through a growth rate of the future cash flow does not let appear this optimum. However, if the terminal value is calculated from the trend of a diffusion process of the price, an optimum may appear under certain conditions. Finally we consider the sensitivity of the optimal holding period to the different parameters involved in the cash flow estimations. This methodology may be applied in commercial valuation and enables to get an optimal holding period for a given portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2006. "Optimal holding period In Real Estate Portfolio," THEMA Working Papers 2006-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2006-21
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    File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/documents/2006-21.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atkins, Allen B & Dyl, Edward A, 1997. " Transactions Costs and Holding Periods for Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 309-325, March.
    2. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Etienne Dupuy, 2011. "Combining Monte Carlo Simulations and Options to Manage the Risk of Real Estate Portfolios," Post-Print hal-00671067, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    valuation; DCF; optimal holding period; commercial property;

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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