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Simulationsbasierter Ertragswert als Ergänzung zum Verkehrswert
[Simulation-based earnings value as a supplement to the market value]

Author

Listed:
  • Werner Gleißner

    (FutureValue Group AG
    TU Dresden)

  • Tobias Just

    (IREBS Universität Regensburg)

  • Endre Kamarás

    (FutureValue Group AG)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die Begriffe „Immobilienpreis“ und „Immobilienwert“ werden häufig synonym verwendet. Das ist dann gerechtfertigt, wenn der Markt tatsächlich dafür sorgt, dass die realisierten Preise die nutzenstiftenden Werte der Zahler abbilden. Doch die heftigen Preisumschwünge auf Immobilien- und Immobilienkapitalmärkten sowie die Erkenntnisse der Verhaltensökonomie legen die Vermutung nahe, dass es Phasen gibt, in denen die Transaktionspreise eben nicht als nachhaltige Werte im Sinne eines als sicher empfundenen Äquivalents für diskontierte, unsichere Zahlungsüberschüsse in der Zukunft angesehen werden können. In diesem Beitrag zeigen wir, dass es häufig hilfreich ist, neben die gängigen Preisschätzverfahren, Bewertungen zu stellen, die auf der Grundlage von Simulationen die Unsicherheit zukünftiger Zahlungen über ein Risiko-Wert-Modell berücksichtigen. Hierbei wird die Monte-Carlo-Simulation nicht wie bei anderen Arbeiten alleine für Inputvariablen und das Ableiten einer Bandbreite für geschätzte Preise genutzt. Die Ergebnisse der Simulation des Cashflows dienen in unserer Arbeit als „Input“ für die Ableitung risikoadäquater Diskontierungszinssätze und eines darauf basierenden fundamentalen Werts. Auch die Trennung in Simulation des Boden- und Immobilienwertes ist in unserer Vorgehensweise neu. Zudem werden Risikodiversifikationseffekte in einem Portfolio abgebildet. Der Portfoliowert stellt dann nicht die Summe aller einzelnen Objektwerte dar, sondern bewertet darüber hinaus Diversifikationseffekte. Ohne die Berücksichtigung der Diversifikationseffekte kann es zu erheblichen Fehlbewertungen von Portfolios kommen. Die zentralen Ergebnisse illustrieren wir anhand eines wohnungswirtschaftlichen Beispiels. Ziel dieser neuen Bewertungsmethode ist nicht ein „besseres“ Preisschätzmodell anstelle der Verkehrswertberechnung vorzustellen, sondern einen intrinsischen Immobilienwert aus spezifischen Annahmen hinsichtlich des Objekts und aus Sicht des Bewerters zu deduzieren. Das Ziel ist nicht, Marktpreise für Immobilien und Immobilienportfolios besser zu treffen als dies von aktuellen Verkehrswertschätzungen gemacht wird, sondern deren „fundamentalen“ Wert zu bestimmen und damit in Kombination von Marktpreisen, bessere Transaktionsentscheidungen zu ermöglichen.

Suggested Citation

  • Werner Gleißner & Tobias Just & Endre Kamarás, 2017. "Simulationsbasierter Ertragswert als Ergänzung zum Verkehrswert [Simulation-based earnings value as a supplement to the market value]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 3(1), pages 21-48, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:gjorer:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1365_s41056-017-0018-5
    DOI: 10.1365/s41056-017-0018-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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