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Do Business Cycles Influence Long-Run Growth? The Effect of Aggregate Demand on Firm-Financed R&D Expenditures

Author

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  • Matthew Rafferty

    () (School of Business, Quinnipiac University)

Abstract

This paper finds that inventive activity, as measured by firm-financed R&D expenditures, is procyclical. In addition, the "lost" R&D during recessions is larger than the "extra" R&D during expansions so the overall effect of the business cycle is to reduce firm-financed R&D during the 1957 5o 1999 period. The results suggest that a business cycle activity might influence the long-run growth rate of an economy by reducing firm-financed R&D and productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Rafferty, 2003. "Do Business Cycles Influence Long-Run Growth? The Effect of Aggregate Demand on Firm-Financed R&D Expenditures," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 607-618, Fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:29:y:2003:i:4:p:607-618
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    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume29/V29N4P607_618.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Bernstein, J.I. & Nadiri, M.I., 1988. "Rates Of Return On Physical And R&D Capital And Structure Of The Production Process: Cross Section And Time Series Evidence," Working Papers 88-09, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    8. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
    9. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
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    11. Gali, J. & Hammour, J.L., 1992. "Long Run Effects of Business Cycles," Papers 92-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Richard C. Levin & Alvin K. Klevorick & Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter, 1987. "Appropriating the Returns from Industrial Research and Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(3, Specia), pages 783-832.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Masino, Serena, 2012. "Macroeconomic instability and the incentive to innovate," MPRA Paper 38766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Masino, Serena, 2013. "Macro-Institutional Instability and the Incentive to Innovate," MPRA Paper 45938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kadri M�nnasoo & Jaanika Merikull, 2011. "How do demand fluctations and credit constraints affect R&D? Evidence from Central, Southern and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Jul 2011.
    4. Paloma López-García & José Manuel Montero & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Business cycles and investment in intangibles: evidence from Spanish firms," Working Papers 1219, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Masino, Serena, 2012. "Macroeconomic instability and the incentive to innovate," MPRA Paper 38830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bettina Becker, 2013. "The Determinants of R&D Investment: A Survey of the Empirical Research," Discussion Paper Series 2013_09, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2013.
    7. Daniel Giedeman & Paul Isely & Gerald Simons, 2006. "Innovation and the Business Cycle: A Comparison of the U.S. Semiconductor and Automobile Industries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 277-286, May.
    8. Hud, Martin & Rammer, Christian, 2015. "Innovation budgeting over the business cycle and innovation performance," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-030, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    9. Kadri Männasoo & Jaanika Merikull, 2015. "The impact of firm financing constraints on R&D over the business cycle," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Dec 2015.
    10. Kadri Männasoo & Jaanika Meriküll, 2015. "The impact of firm financing constraints on R&D over the business cycle," Working Papers 348, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    11. Nikolay Chernyshev, 2017. "R&D Cyclicality and Composition Effects: A Unifying Approach," CDMA Working Paper Series 201705, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    12. repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:2:p:277-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Serena Masino, 2012. "Macroeconomic Instability and the Incentive to Innovate," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 167, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    14. Simona Bovha-Padilla & Joze P. Damijan & Jozef Konings, 2009. "Financial Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment:Evidence from Slovenia," LICOS Discussion Papers 23909, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Cycle; Expansion; Growth; Procyclical; Productivity; R&D; Recession;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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