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Trade Contraction and Employment in India and South Africa during the Global Crisis

  • Kucera, David
  • Roncolato, Leanne
  • von Uexkull, Erik

The paper estimates the effects of the 2008–09 trade contraction on employment in India and South Africa, using social accounting matrices (SAMs) in a Leontief multiplier model. Employment results are presented at aggregate and industry levels and examine gender and skills biases. The most notable finding is that India and South Africa experienced substantial employment declines as a result of trade contraction with the European Union and the United States. A large share of these declines occurred in the non-tradable sector and resulted from income-induced effects, illustrating how a shock originating in the tradable goods sector had strong ripple effects throughout these economies.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 40 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1122-1134

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:40:y:2012:i:6:p:1122-1134
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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  1. Verick, Sher, 2010. "Unravelling the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African labour market," ILO Working Papers 454101, International Labour Organization.
  2. David KUCERA & Leanne RONCOLATO, 2011. "Trade liberalization, employment and inequality in India and South Africa," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 150(1-2), pages 1-41, 06.
  3. Leung, Ron & Stampini, Marco & Vencatachellum, Désiré, 2009. "Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? South Africa in the 2008-2009 Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 4608, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," NBER Working Papers 10376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "Understanding South Africa's Economic Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 5907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kumar, Rajiv & Vashisht, Pankaj, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis: Impact on India and Policy Responses," ADBI Working Papers 164, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  7. David Kucera & William Milberg, 2003. "Deindustrialization and changes in manufacturing trade: Factor content calculations for 1978–1995," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 601-624, December.
  8. Anne O. KRUEGER, 2008. "The Role of Trade and International Economic Policy in Indian Economic Performance," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(2), pages 266-285.
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