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Trade contraction in the global crisis : employment and inequality effects in India and South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kucera, David,
  • Roncolato, Leanne.
  • Uexküll, Erik von.

Abstract

Estimates the effects of the 2008-09 trade contraction on employment and incomes in India and South Africa, using social accounting matrices (SAMs) in a Leontief multiplier model. Employment results are presented at aggregate and industry levels and examine gender and skills biases. Income results examine inequality at the level of rural and urban household income quintiles. The most notable finding is that India and South Africa experienced substantial employment and income declines as a result of trade contraction with the EU and the US. A large share of these declines occurred in the non-tradeable sector and resulted from income-induced effects, illustrating how a shock originated in the tradeable goods sector had strong ripple effects throughout India and South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Kucera, David, & Roncolato, Leanne. & Uexküll, Erik von., 2010. "Trade contraction in the global crisis : employment and inequality effects in India and South Africa," ILO Working Papers 994594013402676, International Labour Organization.
    • Handle: RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994594013402676
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