UK participation in manufacturing global value chains

Since the 1970s, the UK’s share of manufacturing employment has declined steadily, and in the last decade has been well below that of comparable economies. This trend persists even when indirect effects on related industries are considered. Insourcing and intersectoral outsourcing have grown while offshoring, particularly to EU countries, has declined, reflecting a move towards greater self-sufficiency in the run-up to Brexit. From 2010 to 2020, UK demand for manufacturing products generated fewer jobs inside the EU than outside. Within the UK, the employment generated by the UK manufacturing subsystem is mostly concentrated in medium–high and low-tech industries and in low knowledge-intensive services. Moreover, limited integration into foreign manufacturing subsystems, combined with declining demand from traditional partners (EU-15, EU-12, North America), underlines weakening global linkages, despite some employment growth driven by demand from Asia and other regions. Regionally, deindustrialisation was uneven, with manufacturing jobs lost mainly in industrial heartlands and regions with relatively high numbers of manufacturing workers. This correlated with the Brexit vote, with only three regions voting against leaving the EU and all three experiencing an increase in manufacturing employment. The paper suggests that deindustrialisation in the UK is followed by a shift towards regionalisation of manufacturing value chains to reduce vulnerability to globalisation challenges.