Speed-flow relations and cost functions for congested traffic: Theory and empirical analysis
A dynamic 'car-following' extension of the conventional economic model of traffic congestion is presented, which predicts the average cost function for trips in stationary states to be significantly different from the conventional average cost function derived from the speed-flow function. When applied to a homogeneous road, the model reproduces the same stationary state equilibria as the conventional model, including the hypercongested ones. However, stability analysis shows that the latter are dynamically unstable. The average cost function for stationary state traffic coincides with the conventional function for non-hypercongested traffic, but rises vertically at the road's capacity due to queuing, instead of bending backwards. When extending the model to include an upstream road segment, it predicts that such queuing will occur under hypercongested conditions, while the general shape of the average cost function for full trips does not change, implying that hypercongestion will not occur on the downstream road segment. These qualitative predictions are verified empirically using traffic data from a Dutch bottleneck. Finally, it is shown that reduced-form average cost functions, that relate the sum of average travel cost and average schedule delay costs to the number of users in a dynamic equilibrium, certainly need not have the intuitive convex shape, but may very well be concave - despite the fact that the underlying speed-flow function may be convex.
Volume (Year): 39 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7-9 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Erik T. Verhoef, 2001. "Probing A Traffic Congestion Controversy: A Comment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 681-694.
- Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
- Mun, Se-il, 1999. "Peak-Load Pricing of a Bottleneck with Traffic Jam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 323-349, November.
- De Meza, David & Gould, J R, 1987. "Free Access versus Private Property in a Resource: Income Distributions Compared," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1317-25, December.
- Evans, Alan W, 1992. "Road Congestion: The Diagrammatic Analysis: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 211-17, February.
- F. H. Knight, 1924. "Some Fallacies in the Interpretation of Social Cost," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 582-606.
- Verhoef, Erik T., 2003.
"Inside the queue:: hypercongestion and road pricing in a continuous time-continuous place model of traffic congestion,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 531-565, November.
- Verhoef, Erik Teodoor, 2002. "Inside the queue: hypercongestion and road pricing in a continuous time - continuous place model of traffic congestion," ERSA conference papers ersa02p068, European Regional Science Association.
- Hiroshi Ohta, 2001.
"Probing A Traffic Congestion Controversy: Density and Flow Scrutinized,"
Journal of Regional Science,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 659-680.
- Ohta, H., 1999. "Probing a Traffic Congestion Controversy: Density and Flow Scrutinized," Papers 99-00-03, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Verhoef, Erik T., 2001. "An Integrated Dynamic Model of Road Traffic Congestion Based on Simple Car-Following Theory: Exploring Hypercongestion," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 505-542, May.
- Hiroshi Ohta, 2001. "Probing a Traffic Congestion Controversy: Response to Comment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 695-699.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:7-9:p:792-812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.