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Fare evasion in public transport: A time series approach

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  • Troncoso, Rodrigo
  • de Grange, Louis

Abstract

An econometric model is presented that identifies the main variables explaining evasion of fare payment on a public transport system. The model uses a cointegration approach. The model parameters are estimated using data from the Santiago (Chile) bus system, where evasion has been measured at approximately 28%. The main results of the model are that (i) a 10% increase in the fare raises evasion by 2 percentage points and (ii) a 10% increase in inspections lowers evasion by 0.8 percentage points. An increase in unemployment, the third explanatory variable in the model, tends to induce a decrease in evasion, and vice versa. This counterintuitive finding may be explained by the fact that those most vulnerable to job loss, and more likely to evade than the average user due to economic necessity, tend to reduce their use of the bus system when unemployment rises and increase it when unemployment falls.

Suggested Citation

  • Troncoso, Rodrigo & de Grange, Louis, 2017. "Fare evasion in public transport: A time series approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 311-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:311-318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.029
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    Cited by:

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    7. Allen, Jaime & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2019. "On evasion behaviour in public transport: Dissatisfaction or contagion?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 626-651.
    8. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Shariat-Mohaymany, Afshin, 2020. "Who are more likely to break the rule of congestion charging? Evidence from an active scheme with no referendum voting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 63-79.
    9. Telecký Martin & Čejka Jiří & Guchenko Mykola, 2018. "Determining of Provable Loss in Municipal Bus Transport and Its Influence on Public Budgets in Sparsely Populated Areas of the Czech Republic," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 105-113, May.
    10. Celse, Jérémy & Grolleau, Gilles, 2023. "Fare evasion and information provision: What information should be provided to reduce fare-evasion?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 119-128.
    11. Guzman, Luis A. & Arellana, Julian & Camargo, José Pablo, 2021. "A hybrid discrete choice model to understand the effect of public policy on fare evasion discouragement in Bogotá's Bus Rapid Transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 140-153.
    12. Munizaga, Marcela A. & Gschwender, Antonio & Gallegos, Nestor, 2020. "Fare evasion correction for smartcard-based origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 307-322.
    13. Louise Sträuli & Wojciech Kębłowski, 2023. "‘The gates of paradise are open’: Contesting and producing publicness in the Brussels metro through fare evasion," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(15), pages 3126-3142, November.
    14. Antonín Pavlíček & František Sudzina, 2020. "Intergroup Comparison of Personalities in the Preferred Pricing of Public Transport in Rush Hours: Data Revisited," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-9, June.
    15. Elmar Wilhelm M. Fürst & David M. Herold, 2018. "Fare Evasion and Ticket Forgery in Public Transport: Insights from Germany, Austria and Switzerland," Societies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Porath, Keiko & Galilea, Patricia, 2020. "Temporal analysis of fare evasion in Transantiago: A socio-political view," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    18. Brotcorne, L. & Escalona, P. & Fortz, B. & Labbé, M., 2021. "Fare inspection patrols scheduling in transit systems using a Stackelberg game approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-20.

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