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Fuel efficiency and emission in China's road transport sector: Induced effect and rebound effect

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  • Chai, Jian
  • Yang, Ying
  • Wang, Shouyang
  • Lai, Kin Keung

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analysis how endogenous road capacity, in term of an increase in road accessibility and traffic demand (“induced effect”), exogenous efficiency policies and technological progress, in term of an increase in fuel efficiency (“rebound effect”), affect fuel consumption and thereby exhaust emission finally, the empirical estimate a simultaneous equations system of the road traffic demand, fuel consumption, exhaust emission, using the annual data of 1985–2013, we discuss the transmission mechanism of effects caused by road capacity and fuel efficiency policies, and we estimate the induced effect and rebound effect further than the previous studies, and found that the rebound effect and induced effect in China are larger than most studies of the U.S. We also prove the effectiveness of fuel efficiency policies to improve fuel efficiency, however, little help to reduce vehicle emission. In view of the pricing policy, we found that high price of new vehicle cannot inhibit Chinese demand for cars currently, what's more, rising fuel price did not encourage people to purchase energy-saving vehicles in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chai, Jian & Yang, Ying & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Fuel efficiency and emission in China's road transport sector: Induced effect and rebound effect," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 188-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:188-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.005
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    3. Shoshanna Saxe & Dena Kasraian, 2020. "Rethinking environmental LCA life stages for transport infrastructure to facilitate holistic assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(5), pages 1031-1046, October.
    4. Yuan, Zhen & Xu, Jie & Li, Bing & Yao, Tingting, 2022. "Limits of technological progress in controlling energy consumption: Evidence from the energy rebound effects across China's industrial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    5. Estrella Trincado & Antonio Sánchez-Bayón & José María Vindel, 2021. "The European Union Green Deal: Clean Energy Wellbeing Opportunities and the Risk of the Jevons Paradox," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Hyungwoo Lim & Jaehyeok Kim & Ha-Hyun Jo, 2020. "Population Age Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Transportation: A Panel Cointegration Analysis of 21 OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Li, Guohao & Niu, Miaomiao & Xiao, Jin & Wu, Jiaqian & Li, Jinkai, 2023. "The rebound effect of decarbonization in China’s power sector under the carbon trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Sun, Bin & Zhang, Qijun & Hu, Le & Zou, Chao & Wei, Ning & Jia, Zhenyu & Zhao, Xiaoyang & Peng, Jianfei & Mao, Hongjun & Wu, Zhong, 2023. "A prediction-evaluation method for road network energy consumption: Fusion of vehicle energy flow principle and Two-Fluid theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 626(C).
    9. D'Adamo, Idiano & Gastaldi, Massimo & Rosa, Paolo, 2020. "Recycling of end-of-life vehicles: Assessing trends and performances in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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