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One year of COVID-19 in Italy: are containment policies enough to shape the pandemic pattern?

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  • Panarello, Demetrio
  • Tassinari, Giorgio

Abstract

A successful fight against COVID-19 greatly depends on citizens' adherence to the restrictive measures, which may not suffice alone. Making use of a containment index, data on sanctions, and Google's movement trends across Italian provinces, complemented by other sources, we investigate the extent to which compliance with the mobility limitations has affected the number of infections and deaths over time, for the period running from February 24, 2020 to February 23, 2021. We find proof of a deterrent effect on mobility given by the increase in sanction rate and positivity rate among the population. We also show how the pandemic dynamics have changed between the first and the second wave of the emergency. Lots of people could be spared by incorporating greater interventions and many more are at stake, despite the recent boost in vaccinations. Informing citizens about the effects and purposes of the restrictive measures has become increasingly important throughout the various phases of the pandemic.

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  • Panarello, Demetrio & Tassinari, Giorgio, 2022. "One year of COVID-19 in Italy: are containment policies enough to shape the pandemic pattern?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:79:y:2022:i:c:s0038012121001129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2021.101120
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    Cited by:

    1. Raffaele Mattera & Michelangelo Misuraca & Maria Spano & Germana Scepi, 2023. "Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2357-2382, June.
    2. Atina Ahdika & Arum Handini Primandari & Falah Novayanda Adlin, 2023. "Considering the temporal interdependence of human mobility and COVID-19 concerning Indonesia’s large-scale social distancing policies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2791-2810, June.
    3. Giovanni Busetta & Maria Gabriella Campolo & Demetrio Panarello, 2023. "Economic expectations and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic: a one-year longitudinal evaluation on Italian university students," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 59-76, February.
    4. Panarello, Demetrio & Gatto, Andrea, 2023. "Decarbonising Europe – EU citizens’ perception of renewable energy transition amidst the European Green Deal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

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