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Estimating the impact of fuel-switching between liquid fuels and electricity under electricity-sector carbon-pricing schemes

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  • Dowds, Jonathan
  • Hines, Paul D.H.
  • Blumsack, Seth

Abstract

Switching from liquid fuels to electricity in the transportation and heating sectors can result in greenhouse gas emissions reductions. These reductions are maximized when electricity-sector carbon emissions are constrained through policy measures. We use a linear optimization, generation expansion/dispatch model to evaluate the impact of increased electricity demand for plug-in electric vehicle charging on the generating portfolio, overall generating fuel mix, and the costs of electricity generation. We apply this model to the PJM Interconnect and ISO-New England Regional Transmission Organization service areas assuming a CO2 pricing scheme that is applied to the electricity sector but does not directly regulate emissions from other sectors. We find that a shift from coal toward natural gas and wind generation is sufficient to achieve a 50% reduction in electricity-sector CO2 emissions while supporting vehicle charging for 25% of the vehicle fleet. The price impacts of these shifts are sensitive to demand side price responsiveness and the capital costs of new wind construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Dowds, Jonathan & Hines, Paul D.H. & Blumsack, Seth, 2013. "Estimating the impact of fuel-switching between liquid fuels and electricity under electricity-sector carbon-pricing schemes," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 76-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:47:y:2013:i:2:p:76-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2012.09.004
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    3. Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa & Blumsack, Seth & Kleit, Andrew, 2015. "Estimating zonal electricity supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 10-19.
    4. Gong, Xu & Shi, Rong & Xu, Jun & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Analyzing spillover effects between carbon and fossil energy markets from a time-varying perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    5. Dowds, Jonathan & Howerter, Sarah & Hines, Paul & Aultman-Hall, Lisa, 2024. "Integrated Modeling of Electric Vehicle Energy Demand and Regional Electricity Generation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9nv8z4kc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Lerche, Nils & Wilkens, Ines & Schmehl, Meike & Eigner-Thiel, Swantje & Geldermann, Jutta, 2019. "Using methods of Multi-Criteria Decision Making to provide decision support concerning local bioenergy projects," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Chen, Hao & Geng, Hao-Peng & Ling, Hui-Ting & Peng, Song & Li, Nan & Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2020. "Modeling the coal-to-gas switch potentials in the power sector: A case study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

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