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Global supply chain pressure and Chinese business and consumer confidence

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  • Ullah, Assad
  • Bouri, Elie
  • Bukhari, Azaz Ali Ather
  • Bukhari, Waqar Ali Ather

Abstract

The ripple effects of disruptions in the global supply chains have pervasive economic consequences for various industries and the overall economy. This study examines the impact of global supply chain pressure on Chinese business and consumer confidence from February 2000 to September 2024. It employs Quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression, which helps to understand how varying levels of global supply chain pressure influence different levels of Chinese business and consumer confidence, providing insights beyond what can be gauged via a mean-based regression. The main results show the following: Firstly, Chinese business confidence is negatively associated with supply chain pressure across all upper, middle, and lower quantiles, reflecting a homogenous adverse impact irrespective of the levels of both variables. Secondly, Chinese consumer confidence is impacted heterogeneously by the magnitude of supply chain pressure, indicating the relevance of the quantile distribution of both variables to their association. The results remain valid after applying a Wavelet Quantile Correlation approach, indicating their robustness. Our findings offer crucial insights to Chinese policymakers and other stakeholders, suggesting that Chinese businesses do not tolerate pressure in the global supply chain, whereas Chinese consumers tend to switch to local products and services during lapses in the global supply chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Ullah, Assad & Bouri, Elie & Bukhari, Azaz Ali Ather & Bukhari, Waqar Ali Ather, 2025. "Global supply chain pressure and Chinese business and consumer confidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:77:y:2025:i:pb:s0275531925002223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.102966
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