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The current account and stock returns

  • Kitamura, Yoshihiro

In this paper, I use stock return data to test an intertemporal model of the current account. I find that the model performs well in three countries: the U.K., Canada, and Japan. Hall [Hall, R.E., 1978. Stochastic implication of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence. J. Polit. Econ. 86 (6), 971-987] points out that because stock price predicts the future state of the economy, it predicts consumption. Assuming that consumption depends on permanent income, my empirical finding indicates that a representative agent smoothes consumption based on stock market information. In other words, stock market returns yield information about permanent income.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.

Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 302-321

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Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:23:y:2009:i:3:p:302-321
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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  2. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
  3. Iscan, T., 1999. "Present Value Tests of the Current Account with Durables Consumption," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 99-04, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  4. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Testing an optimizing model of the current account via the consumption function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 220-233, June.
  5. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Mercereau Benoit, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: a Time Series Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30, April.
  7. Christina D. Romer, 1988. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Steven M. Sheffrin & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Working Papers 9722, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  9. Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; Evidence From the United States," IMF Working Papers 03/108, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Poterba, J.M. & Samwick, A.A., 1996. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," Working papers 96-2, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence," Working papers 2004-43, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006.
  12. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
  13. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-59.
  14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  15. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  16. Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; A Time Series Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/50, International Monetary Fund.
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