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Time-Varying Correlations between Trade Balance and Stock Prices in the United States over the Period 1792 to 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Portsmouth; Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University and Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Aviral Kumar Twari

    (Faculty of Management, IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University, India)

Abstract

The relationship between stock prices and the trade balance can be either negative or positive, depending on the signs of the wealth effect channel and the exchange rate channel. While previous studies examined this relationship in a time-invariant framework, we employ a time-varying approach so as to examine the dynamic correlations of trade balance and stock prices in the United States over the period 1792-2013. The results of our empirical analysis, which remain robust to alternative specifications, reveal that correlations between the trade balance and stock prices in the United States are indeed not constant, but evolve heterogeneously overtime. In particular, the correlations are, in general, significantly positive between 1800 and 1870, while significantly negative thereafter. The policy implications of these findings are then discussed..

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Aviral Kumar Twari, 2015. "Time-Varying Correlations between Trade Balance and Stock Prices in the United States over the Period 1792 to 2013," Working Papers 2015100, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:2015100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Komain Jiranyakul, 2017. "Asset Prices, Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Fluctuations: Some Structural VAR Evidence for Thailand," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 163-177, December.
    2. Brian Opiyo Yalla & Ferdinand Okoth Othieno, 2023. "Modelling delayed correlation between interest rates and equity market returns," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional correlation; GARCH; Trade-Balance and Stock Price Comovement; US Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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