Which context matters for capturing energy needs? A multi-level analysis

The need for development interventions to be context-specific in the Global South has become a mantra in the academic research over the last decade. However, there is ambiguity about which type of context actually matters, using the term to either mean different countries, sub-national regions, or specific communities. Here, ordinal logistic regression models are applied to novel survey data (N = 1016) on household and small business energy needs in rural Uganda and Zambia to analyse the extent to which current and aspirational energy consumption differ at the national, regional, district, and village levels. These results indicate that domestic energy needs vary statistically significantly between the two countries, and, notably, between districts and villages. By contrast, differences in productive energy aspirations appear to differ mostly at the national and regional level, with no significant variations associated with local district and village levels within each region. These results yield two central implications that contribute to discussions on multi-scale linkages within sustainability transitions research. First, conceptually, the results suggest that a multi-level assessment is beneficial to fully understand energy consumption and aspirations of a particular location while analyses at a singular level can overlook wider disaggregated patterns that transcend one specific level. Second, the variance of local-level household energy needs means that including local-level participatory elements into energy access policymaking and implementation might be required to adequately capture and respond to these different needs. By contrast, to meet productive use aspirations, associated initiatives may benefit particularly from factoring in economic differences between sub-national regions.