From demand deficit to development strategy: navigating mini-grid viability in a fragile context

Four in five people without access to electricity live in Sub-Saharan Africa, where minigrids are seen as a key solution to closing the energy access gap. Yet investment in minigrids remains constrained by low and unpredictable demand, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings. We study electricity demand in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo — a region marked by conflict and institutional fragility. Drawing on census data from five localities, we track connection rates and electricity consumption over a six-year period. In addition, a detailed pre-connection survey allows us to link household and firm characteristics to actual connection uptake and electricity consumption. We find that demand is highly heterogeneous, and only weakly associated with pre-grid data. This makes planning and sizing of mini-grids particularly difficult and risky. We then examine how the local mini-grid operator, Virunga Energies, has addressed this challenge through an integrated development strategy that includes supporting industrial clients, providing micro-credit, promoting electric cooking, and leveraging temporary anchor loads. The case highlights how mini-grid viability in fragile settings may depend less on improved demand forecasting and more on the capacity to build and coordinate demand alongside infrastructure. This has implications for electrification policy, investment design, and the role of public and donor support in overcoming coordination failures.