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An optimization model to provide electric power systems’ net zero-carbon emission pathways considering diverse measures under double-side randomness and vagueness

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, J.
  • Li, J.W.
  • Li, X.
  • Li, Y.P.
  • Gao, P.P.
  • Jin, L.

Abstract

This study develops an interval fractional double-sides stochastic-fuzzy net zero-carbon emission electric power system planning model (IFDS-ZCEM) to detect the optimal decarbonization pathways. Extending previous studies, the model's objective is improved from total cost minimization to total carbon emission intensity minimization, considering more aspects of constraints; introducing diverse measures to synergistically mitigate carbon emissions in high emission regions; handling inherent interactions of multiple random and vague information to control decision-making risks. It is applied to Fujian Province (in China), where the system's intensity was 9.09 kg/CNY in 2023. The model provides potential planning schemes regarding to decarbonization under 25 uncertain scenarios during 2026–2060. Main findings are: The total intensity would obviously vary with the changed scenarios; revealing the significance of uncertainties' effects. The annual intensity would decrease from {[[3.56, 3.91], [6.13, 7.87]], [[4.37, 5.91], [9.45, 10.66]]} kg/CNY to 0 (carbon neutrality in 2060); disclosing the importance of adopting diverse measures. The system benefit, water utilization and land requirement would annually increase by [-0.18, 0.83] %, decrease by [0.88, 1.09] % and increase by [1.36, 1.98] %; revealing the model's effectiveness in balancing multiple aspects. Quantified low carbon energy transitions, production technique improvements, negative-emission technology adoptions and economic penalty actions would support policy making.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, J. & Li, J.W. & Li, X. & Li, Y.P. & Gao, P.P. & Jin, L., 2026. "An optimization model to provide electric power systems’ net zero-carbon emission pathways considering diverse measures under double-side randomness and vagueness," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:256:y:2026:i:pi:s0960148125023018
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124637
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    1. Huang, Ren & Wang, Peng & Zhang, Sufang & Ren, Zhongrui & Pu, Lei, 2026. "Power system transition pathways in mega-cities under the “Dual Carbon” targets: A multi-temporal case study of Beijing in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

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