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A tripartite stochastic evolutionary game for trading strategies under renewable portfolio standards in China’s electric power industry

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  • Teng, Minmin
  • Lv, Kunfeng
  • Han, Chuanfeng
  • Liu, Pihui

Abstract

China must adopt effective policies for implementing tradable green certificates (TGC) under renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Current research overlooks the strategic interactions among TGC trading entities and the role of market mechanisms in promoting green certificates. This paper develops a tripartite stochastic evolutionary game involving thermal power plants, green power plants, and the grid to analyze how key parameters—such as price levels, regulatory penalties, and interference intensity (the degree of external disruptions)—affect the strategies of these players under stochastic interference. The results are as follows: The results are as follows: (1) At an interference intensity of 0.8, if the excess consumption price of renewable energy is lower than the average prices of wind and photovoltaic TGC, RPS and TGC policies have the greatest impact. (2) In the coupled market for new energy consumption and green power certificates, parity TGC implementation significantly reduces green power plants' willingness to trade. (3) At an interference intensity of 0.5, with a unit penalty three times the average prices of wind and photovoltaic TGC and a quota completion reward of 0.4, the incentive for thermal power plants and the grid to trade TGC is maximized. This research optimizes TGC implementation policies, promotes renewable energy development.

Suggested Citation

  • Teng, Minmin & Lv, Kunfeng & Han, Chuanfeng & Liu, Pihui, 2025. "A tripartite stochastic evolutionary game for trading strategies under renewable portfolio standards in China’s electric power industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:240:y:2025:i:c:s0960148124022614
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122193
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