IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v321y2025ics036054422501120x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System dynamics emerging from compliance behaviors coordination of electricity consumers under renewable portfolio standards in China: An agent-based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Jiaqian
  • Liang, Yiduo
  • Yu, Songmin
  • Yu, Lean

Abstract

The Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) policy imposes mandatory obligations on the obligated entities for the consumption of renewable energy electricity (RE), which can be completed through RE consumption in the electricity market, participating in Tradeable Green Certificates (TGC) transactions and consumption above quota (CAQ) transactions in supplementary markets. In this context, how to coordinate the three compliance options and how to design the RPS policy become key issues. This paper proposes a hybrid agent-based model (ABM) for RPS by incorporating an evolutionary training algorithm to depict the micro-level compliance behaviors and decision-making process of obligated entities and evaluate the macro-level impacts of various RPS targets. Our analysis reveals that 1) RPS target can positively promote the RE electricity consumption, but the trend of change in CAQ consumption share and consumers’ profit with the RPS target regulation is non-monotonic; 2) the CAQ market and TGC market exhibit a positive price linkage, tightening RPS constraints can significantly stimulate the vitality of both markets; 3) when RPS target is set at 60 %, the total consumption obligation and actual RE consumption exceed the RPS target the most; when set at 90 %, the gap between actual RE consumption and RPS target is the largest.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Jiaqian & Liang, Yiduo & Yu, Songmin & Yu, Lean, 2025. "System dynamics emerging from compliance behaviors coordination of electricity consumers under renewable portfolio standards in China: An agent-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:321:y:2025:i:c:s036054422501120x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135478
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422501120X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.135478?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4pa18fd9lf9h59m4vfavfcf61e is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Iychettira, Kaveri K. & Hakvoort, Rudi A. & Linares, Pedro & de Jeu, Rob, 2017. "Towards a comprehensive policy for electricity from renewable energy: Designing for social welfare," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 228-242.
    3. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 482-483, October.
    4. Wu, Jiaqian & Zheng, Xiaolin & Yu, Songmin & Yu, Lean, 2024. "Modeling multi-market coupling effects considering the consumption above quota trading market in renewable portfolio standards: An agent-based perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Fett, Daniel & Fraunholz, Christoph & Keles, Dogan, 2021. "Diffusion and system impact of residential battery storage under different regulatory settings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Jimenez, I. Sanchez & Ribó-Pérez, D. & Cvetkovic, M. & Kochems, J. & Schimeczek, C. & de Vries, L.J., 2024. "Can an energy only market enable resource adequacy in a decarbonized power system? A co-simulation with two agent-based-models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    7. Jiang, Lan & Meng, Ming, 2024. "Optimal production decision of hybrid power generation enterprises in multi-quota policy coupled markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Zhu, Chaoping & Fan, Ruguo & Lin, Jinchai, 2020. "The impact of renewable portfolio standard on retail electricity market: A system dynamics model of tripartite evolutionary game," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Wang, Tonghe & Hua, Haochen & Shi, Tianying & Wang, Rui & Sun, Yizhong & Naidoo, Pathmanathan, 2024. "A bi-level dispatch optimization of multi-microgrid considering green electricity consumption willingness under renewable portfolio standard policy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    10. Zhou, Shan & Solomon, Barry D., 2020. "Do renewable portfolio standards in the United States stunt renewable electricity development beyond mandatory targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Xin-gang, Zhao & Lei, Xu & Ying, Zhou, 2022. "How to promote the effective implementation of China’s Renewable Portfolio Standards considering non-neutral technology?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    12. Li, Chunxiao & Wang, Delu & Mao, Jinqi & Chen, Fan, 2024. "How to facilitate the implementation of the renewable portfolio standard? A system dynamics model analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    13. Wu, Jiaqian & Chen, Yu & Yu, Lean & Li, Guohao & Li, Jingjing, 2023. "Has the evolution of renewable energy policies facilitated the construction of a new power system for China? A system dynamics analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    14. Anwar, Muhammad Bashar & Stephen, Gord & Dalvi, Sourabh & Frew, Bethany & Ericson, Sean & Brown, Maxwell & O’Malley, Mark, 2022. "Modeling investment decisions from heterogeneous firms under imperfect information and risk in wholesale electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    15. Sylvain Barde & Sander van der Hoog, 2017. "An empirical validation protocol for large-scale agent-based models," Studies in Economics 1712, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Alderete Peralta, Ali & Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Longhurst, Philip, 2022. "Spatio-temporal modelling of solar photovoltaic adoption: An integrated neural networks and agent-based modelling approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    17. Song, Xiao-hua & Han, Jing-jing & Zhang, Lu & Zhao, Cai-ping & Wang, Peng & Liu, Xiao-yan & Li, Qiao-chu, 2021. "Impacts of renewable portfolio standards on multi-market coupling trading of renewable energy in China: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    18. Grimm, Volker & Berger, Uta & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Polhill, J. Gary & Giske, Jarl & Railsback, Steven F., 2010. "The ODD protocol: A review and first update," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(23), pages 2760-2768.
    19. Sun, Bo & Li, Mingzhe & Wang, Fan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "An incentive mechanism to promote residential renewable energy consumption in China's electricity retail market: A two-level Stackelberg game approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    20. Yu, Song-min & Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei & Eichhammer, Wolfgang, 2020. "Modeling the emission trading scheme from an agent-based perspective: System dynamics emerging from firms’ coordination among abatement options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1113-1128.
    21. Na, Chunning & Wang, Jing & Feng, Bin & Pan, Huan, 2024. "Impact analysis of the four-party evolutionary game in renewable portfolio standard under dynamic parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
    22. Zeng, Lijun & Du, Wenjing & Zhang, Wencheng & Zhao, Laijun & Wang, Zhaohua, 2023. "An inter-provincial cooperation model under Renewable Portfolio Standard policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    23. Sundt, Swantje & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2015. "Consumers' willingness to pay for green electricity: A meta-analysis of the literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-8.
    24. Hu, Yu & Chi, Yuanying & Zhao, Hao & Zhou, Wenbing, 2022. "The development of renewable energy industry under renewable portfolio standards: From the perspective of provincial resource differences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    25. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4pa18fd9lf9h59m4vfavfcf61e is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Fang, Yujuan & Wei, Wei & Mei, Shengwei, 2022. "How dynamic renewable portfolio standards impact the diffusion of renewable energy in China? A networked evolutionary game analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 778-788.
    27. Fang, Debin & Zhao, Chaoyang & Kleit, Andrew N., 2019. "The impact of the under enforcement of RPS in China: An evolutionary approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    28. Fett, Daniel & Fraunholz, Christoph & Keles, Dogan, 2021. "Diffusion and system impact of residential battery storage under different regulatory settings," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 55, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    29. Poplavskaya, Ksenia & Lago, Jesus & de Vries, Laurens, 2020. "Effect of market design on strategic bidding behavior: Model-based analysis of European electricity balancing markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    30. Sridhar, Araavind & Honkapuro, Samuli & Ruiz, Fredy & Stoklasa, Jan & Annala, Salla & Wolff, Annika, 2024. "Residential consumer enrollment in demand response: An agent based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    31. Wang, Lin & Li, Ke, 2022. "Research on renewable energy consumption and emission reduction in power market based on bi-level decision making in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    32. Zhang, Feng & Li, Yun & Li, Fengling & Yuan, Jiahang & Li, Yanbin, 2022. "Decision-making behavior of power suppliers in the green certificate market: A system dynamics analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    33. Yue, Tingyi & Wang, Honglei & Li, Chengjiang & Hu, Yu-jie, 2024. "Optimization strategies for green power and certificate trading in China considering seasonality: An evolutionary game-based system dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    34. Dong, Zhuojia & Yu, Xianyu & Chang, Ching-Ter & Zhou, Dequn & Sang, Xiuzhi, 2022. "How does feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard evolve synergistically? An integrated approach of tripartite evolutionary game and system dynamics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 864-877.
    35. Ringler, Philipp & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of smart electricity grids and markets – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-215.
    36. Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial & Kaya, Murat & Sahin, Guvenc, 2017. "Competition, risk and learning in electricity markets: An agent-based simulation study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1000-1011.
    37. Iychettira, Kaveri K. & Hakvoort, Rudi A. & Linares, Pedro, 2017. "Towards a comprehensive policy for electricity from renewable energy: An approach for policy design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 169-182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Jiaqian & Zheng, Xiaolin & Yu, Songmin & Yu, Lean, 2024. "Modeling multi-market coupling effects considering the consumption above quota trading market in renewable portfolio standards: An agent-based perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Teng, Minmin & Lv, Kunfeng & Han, Chuanfeng & Liu, Pihui, 2023. "Trading behavior strategy of power plants and the grid under renewable portfolio standards in China: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    3. Zhong, Cheng & Feng, Tian-tian & Li, Yan, 2025. "Designing incentives and penalties for China's renewable portfolio standards: A survey-based evolutionary game approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Hu, Fanshuai & Zhou, Dequn & Zhu, Qingyuan & Wang, Qunwei, 2024. "How dynamic renewable portfolio standards affect trading behavior of power generators? Considering green certificate and reward/penalty mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    5. Teng, Minmin & Lv, Kunfeng & Han, Chuanfeng & Liu, Pihui, 2025. "A tripartite stochastic evolutionary game for trading strategies under renewable portfolio standards in China’s electric power industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    6. Wu, Jiaqian & Chen, Yu & Yu, Lean & Li, Guohao & Li, Jingjing, 2023. "Has the evolution of renewable energy policies facilitated the construction of a new power system for China? A system dynamics analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Yue, Tingyi & Wang, Honglei & Li, Chengjiang & Hu, Yu-jie, 2024. "Optimization strategies for green power and certificate trading in China considering seasonality: An evolutionary game-based system dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    8. Wang, Delu & Li, Chunxiao & Mao, Jinqi & Yang, Qing, 2023. "What affects the implementation of the renewable portfolio standard? An analysis of the four-party evolutionary game," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 250-261.
    9. Ying, Zhou & Xuefeng, Jia & Hui, Wang & Junling, Huang, 2025. "Incentive mechanism design for mandatory green certificate trading in China: A collective action perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    10. Na, Chunning & Wang, Jing & Feng, Bin & Pan, Huan, 2024. "Impact analysis of the four-party evolutionary game in renewable portfolio standard under dynamic parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
    11. Zeng, Lijun & Du, Wenjing & Zhao, Laijun & Chen, Shuai, 2024. "An inter-provincial coordinate model under Renewable Portfolio Standards policy based on tradable green certificate options trading," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    12. Barazza, Elsa & Strachan, Neil, 2020. "The impact of heterogeneous market players with bounded-rationality on the electricity sector low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Yan Lu & Xuan Liu & Hongjian Li & Haoran Wang & Jiajie Kong & Cheng Zhong & Mingli Cui & Yan Li & Xiaoqi Sun & Jiadong Xuan & Tiantian Feng, 2023. "What Is the Impact of the Renewable Energy Power Absorption Guarantee Mechanism on China’s Green Electricity Market?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Ying, Zhou & Xin-gang, Zhao & Lei, Xu, 2022. "Supply side incentive under the Renewable Portfolio Standards: A perspective of China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 505-518.
    15. Wang, Xinru & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Wang, Yujie & Shi, Yanmin & Yang, Shuhan & Wu, Meifen, 2024. "How to promote the trading in China's green electricity market? Based on environmental perceptions, renewable portfolio standard and subsidies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    16. Zhang, Shuo & Xu, Zhenhao & Li, Yingzi & Zhang, Jiayuan & Hu, Jiang, 2025. "System dynamics simulation model of price transmission in collaboration market of electricity, carbon, and green certificate driven by multiple policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    17. Glismann, Samuel, 2021. "Ancillary Services Acquisition Model: Considering market interactions in policy design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    18. Amiri-Pebdani, Sima & Alinaghian, Mahdi & Khosroshahi, Hossein, 2023. "A game theoretic approach for time-of-use pricing with considering renewable portfolio standard effects and investment in energy storage technologies under government interventions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    19. Zeng, Lijun & Du, Wenjing & Zhao, Laijun & Zhan, Yanhong, 2023. "An inter-provincial transfer fee model under renewable portfolio standard policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    20. Cheng, Xiaobin & Liu, Pengfei & Zhu, Lei, 2024. "The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:321:y:2025:i:c:s036054422501120x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.