What Is the Impact of the Renewable Energy Power Absorption Guarantee Mechanism on China’s Green Electricity Market?

In order to accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, China set the provincial weight of responsibility for renewable energy power consumption and established a renewable energy power absorption guarantee mechanism in 2019. As a market incentive policy, it has enduring effect on the low-carbon transformation of the power industry. Firstly, the operation mechanism of the renewable energy consumption guarantee mechanism is analyzed. The general framework, core elements and supporting measures are clarified. Secondly, a stock-flow diagram is constructed based on the system dynamics method. It contains the green electricity market sub-module, the green-certificate market sub-module and the excess power absorption market sub-module. Finally, multiple scenarios are set up to simulate the impact of the green-certificate market and excess power absorption market improvements on the installed capacity and tariff of China’s green power market. The renewable energy guarantee mechanism is an effective means to promote the consumption of green electricity in China. In addition, in the short term the cost of electricity for users has increased, but in the long term the cost of electricity shows a fluctuating downward trend. This study provides theoretical references for the formulation of clean and low-carbon policy objectives in the power industry and the optimization of market mechanisms.