IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v238y2025ics0960148124019578.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capacity investment portfolio optimization considering EV charging flexibility: A heuristic algorithm-informed system dynamics approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Haoxiang
  • Huang, Zhenyu
  • Wang, Xuexin
  • Li, Chen
  • Liu, Youbo
  • Liu, Junyong

Abstract

Orderly charging of electric vehicles (EVs) functions as a flexible tool for peak shaving to help integrate renewable energy sources effectively. Coordinating investments in charging resources and generation resources can enhance social benefits while ensuring the charging needs of EVs are met. This study aims to optimize the long-term investment strategies for these resources using a heuristic algorithm-informed system dynamic (SD) approach. Firstly, a SD model is developed to simulate the long-term interactions among generation resources, EVs, and power demand, capturing their dynamic relationships. Then, the fixed feedback functions of investment parameters in the SD model are replaced with an optimization model, enabling parameter optimization for environmental and economic objectives. Given that the process must quantify the aforementioned long-term interrelationships with potential high-order, nonlinear feedback loops, the solution is implemented using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Data from a specific province in China was used for the case study. The results show that the optimized investment portfolio reduced carbon costs and total investment by 2.4% and 22%, respectively, while total social costs decreased by 17% compared to the pre-set investment strategy. Lastly, we also conducted sensitivity analysis and algorithm comparison.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Haoxiang & Huang, Zhenyu & Wang, Xuexin & Li, Chen & Liu, Youbo & Liu, Junyong, 2025. "Capacity investment portfolio optimization considering EV charging flexibility: A heuristic algorithm-informed system dynamics approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:238:y:2025:i:c:s0960148124019578
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121889
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148124019578
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121889?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. González-Garrido, Amaia & González-Pérez, Mikel & Asensio, Francisco Javier & Cortes-Borray, Andrés Felipe & Santos-Mugica, Maider & Vicente-Figueirido, Ibon, 2024. "Hierarchical control for collaborative electric vehicle charging to alleviate network congestion and enhance EV hosting in constrained distribution networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    2. Esmaieli, M. & Ahmadian, M., 2018. "The effect of research and development incentive on wind power investment, a system dynamics approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 765-773.
    3. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Mills, Andrew D. & Rodriguez, Pía, 2020. "A simple and fast algorithm for estimating the capacity credit of solar and storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    5. Madani, Seyyedreza & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier, 2024. "Investment in vehicle-to-grid and distributed energy resources: Distributor versus prosumer perspectives and the impact of rate structures," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Zhu, Zhi-Hong & Gao, Zi-You & Zheng, Jian-Feng & Du, Hao-Ming, 2016. "Charging station location problem of plug-in electric vehicles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 11-22.
    7. Paik, Chunhyun & Chung, Yongjoo & Kim, Young Jin, 2021. "ELCC-based capacity credit estimation accounting for uncertainties in capacity factors and its application to solar power in Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 833-841.
    8. Shorabeh, Saman Nadizadeh & Samany, Najmeh Neysani & Minaei, Foad & Firozjaei, Hamzeh Karimi & Homaee, Mehdi & Boloorani, Ali Darvishi, 2022. "A decision model based on decision tree and particle swarm optimization algorithms to identify optimal locations for solar power plants construction in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 56-67.
    9. Jahani, Hamed & Gholizadeh, Hadi & Hayati, Zahra & Fazlollahtabar, Hamed, 2023. "Investment risk assessment of the biomass-to-energy supply chain using system dynamics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 554-567.
    10. He, Y.X. & Jiao, J. & Chen, R.J. & Shu, H., 2018. "The optimization of Chinese power grid investment based on transmission and distribution tariff policy: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-122.
    11. Marshall L. Fisher, 2004. "The Lagrangian Relaxation Method for Solving Integer Programming Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1861-1871, December.
    12. Wang, Ning & Tian, Hangqi & Wu, Huahua & Liu, Qiaoqian & Luan, Jie & Li, Yuan, 2023. "Cost-oriented optimization of the location and capacity of charging stations for the electric Robotaxi fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    13. Uddin, Moslem & Romlie, Mohd Fakhizan & Abdullah, Mohd Faris & Abd Halim, Syahirah & Abu Bakar, Ab Halim & Chia Kwang, Tan, 2018. "A review on peak load shaving strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3323-3332.
    14. Yu, Xianyu & Wu, Zemin & Wang, Qunwei & Sang, Xiuzhi & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Exploring the investment strategy of power enterprises under the nationwide carbon emissions trading mechanism: A scenario-based system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Jiang, Ziyue & Han, Jingzuo & Li, Yetong & Chen, Xinyu & Peng, Tianduo & Xiong, Jianliang & Shu, Zhan, 2023. "Charging station layout planning for electric vehicles based on power system flexibility requirements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    16. Fan, Vivienne Hui & Dong, Zhaoyang & Meng, Ke, 2020. "Integrated distribution expansion planning considering stochastic renewable energy resources and electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    17. Ahmed, Ijaz & Rehan, Muhammad & Basit, Abdul & Malik, Saddam Hussain & Ahmed, Waqas & Hong, Keum-Shik, 2024. "Adaptive salp swarm algorithm for sustainable economic and environmental dispatch under renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    18. Sridharan, S. & Sivakumar, S. & Shanmugasundaram, N. & Swapna, S. & Vasan Prabhu, V., 2023. "A hybrid approach based energy management for building resilience against power outage by shared parking station for EVs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Rethinking the choice of carbon tax and carbon trading in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Li, Baozhu & Lv, Xiaotian & Chen, Jiaxin, 2024. "Demand and supply gap analysis of Chinese new energy vehicle charging infrastructure: Based on CNN-LSTM prediction model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    21. Wu, Yan & Aziz, Syed Mahfuzul & Haque, Mohammed H., 2022. "Techno-economic modelling for energy cost optimisation of households with electric vehicles and renewable sources under export limits," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1254-1266.
    22. Marshall L. Fisher, 2004. "Comments on ÜThe Lagrangian Relaxation Method for Solving Integer Programming ProblemsÝ," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1872-1874, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    2. Yanling Chu & Xiaoju Zhang & Zhongzhen Yang, 2017. "Multiple quay cranes scheduling for double cycling in container terminals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, July.
    3. An, Yu & Zhang, Yu & Zeng, Bo, 2015. "The reliable hub-and-spoke design problem: Models and algorithms," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 103-122.
    4. Dollevoet, Twan & van Essen, J. Theresia & Glorie, Kristiaan M., 2018. "Solution methods for the tray optimization problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 1070-1084.
    5. Alexandre Belloni & Mitchell J. Lovett & William Boulding & Richard Staelin, 2012. "Optimal Admission and Scholarship Decisions: Choosing Customized Marketing Offers to Attract a Desirable Mix of Customers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 621-636, July.
    6. Zhizhu Lai & Qun Yue & Zheng Wang & Dongmei Ge & Yulong Chen & Zhihong Zhou, 2022. "The min-p robust optimization approach for facility location problem under uncertainty," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 1134-1160, September.
    7. Jiang, Yangsheng & Huangfu, Junjie & Xiao, Guosheng & Zhang, Yongxiang & Yao, Zhihong, 2025. "Energy-efficient trajectory design of connected automated vehicles platoon: A unified modeling approach using space-time-speed grid networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    8. Yokoya, Daisuke & Duin, Cees W. & Yamada, Takeo, 2011. "A reduction approach to the repeated assignment problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 185-193, April.
    9. Zhang, Zheng & Wei, Yongqi & Xiong, Youming & Peng, Geng & Wang, Guorong & Lu, Jingsheng & Zhong, Lin & Wang, Jingpeng, 2022. "Influence of the location of drilling fluid loss on wellbore temperature distribution during drilling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    10. Jabbarzadeh, Armin & Fahimnia, Behnam & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Moghadam, Hani Shahmoradi, 2016. "Designing a supply chain resilient to major disruptions and supply/demand interruptions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 121-149.
    11. Junming Liu & Weiwei Chen & Jingyuan Yang & Hui Xiong & Can Chen, 2022. "Iterative Prediction-and-Optimization for E-Logistics Distribution Network Design," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 769-789, March.
    12. Springborn, Michael R., 2014. "Risk aversion and adaptive management: Insights from a multi-armed bandit model of invasive species risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 226-242.
    13. Li, Wenjie & Yang, Lixing & Wang, Li & Zhou, Xuesong & Liu, Ronghui & Gao, Ziyou, 2017. "Eco-reliable path finding in time-variant and stochastic networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 372-387.
    14. Chen, Jiahao & Sun, Bing & Li, Yunfei & Jing, Ruipeng & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Minghao, 2022. "Credible capacity calculation method of distributed generation based on equal power supply reliability criterion," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 534-547.
    15. Zheng, Jianfeng & Meng, Qiang & Sun, Zhuo, 2014. "Impact analysis of maritime cabotage legislations on liner hub-and-spoke shipping network design," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 874-884.
    16. Vasile BRÄ‚TIAN, 2018. "Portfolio Optimization. Application of the Markowitz Model Using Lagrange and Profitability Forecast," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 6(1), pages 26-34.
    17. Karademir, Cigdem & Beirigo, Breno A. & Atasoy, Bilge, 2025. "A two-echelon multi-trip vehicle routing problem with synchronization for an integrated water- and land-based transportation system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 322(2), pages 480-499.
    18. Song, Qianqian & Wang, Bo & Wang, Zhaohua & Wen, Lei, 2024. "Multi-objective capacity configuration optimization of the combined wind - Storage system considering ELCC and LCOE," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    19. Miguel A. Lejeune & John Turner, 2019. "Planning Online Advertising Using Gini Indices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 1222-1245, September.
    20. Claudio Gambella & Joe Naoum-Sawaya & Bissan Ghaddar, 2018. "The Vehicle Routing Problem with Floating Targets: Formulation and Solution Approaches," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 554-569, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:238:y:2025:i:c:s0960148124019578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.