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Investment risk assessment of the biomass-to-energy supply chain using system dynamics

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  • Jahani, Hamed
  • Gholizadeh, Hadi
  • Hayati, Zahra
  • Fazlollahtabar, Hamed

Abstract

Over the past decade, renewable energy supply chains have been widely studied to help reduce environmental problems. The biomass has become a vital renewable energy source, but due to the cost and complexity of logistics operations, all stakeholders collaborated in the management and design of biomass-to-energy supply chains (BESC) are interested in assessing the risks of this promising investment. The main purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the investment risk linked to the development of biomass renewable supply chain. The risks of generic system components are initially presented and then the unique risks exclusively associated to BESCs. We discuss the main associated risks, namely market risk, financial risk, policy risk, and investment environment risk. The uncertainty in quantification of effective factors is then considered. By using the system dynamics methodology, several stock-flow charts and risk assessment models are evaluated for an effective BESC investment plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahani, Hamed & Gholizadeh, Hadi & Hayati, Zahra & Fazlollahtabar, Hamed, 2023. "Investment risk assessment of the biomass-to-energy supply chain using system dynamics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 554-567.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:203:y:2023:i:c:p:554-567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.12.038
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