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Storm surges, informational shocks, and the price of urban real estate: An application to the case of Hurricane Sandy

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  • Cohen, Jeffrey P.
  • Barr, Jason
  • Kim, Eon

Abstract

The impacts of a major hurricane on residential real estate can be devastating. Hurricane Sandy in New York City (NYC) is among the examples of how flooding can unexpectedly extend beyond FEMA flood zones. Such surprises or negative shocks can provide property owners—especially those not flooded—with new information about future flood risks, based on the difference of the property distance from the mapped flood zone and the distance to the actual locations of flooding. We use a difference-in-differences approach to quantify the effects of these shocks on residential property values for non-flooded NYC properties after Sandy. The short-run negative “surprise” effect was to lower NYC housing prices by about 6%–7% for each mile (or about 2% per standard deviation) difference between the property distance from the flood zone and the distance to the actual locations of flooding. The corresponding positive “surprise” effect is insignificant. The long-term surprise effects of flood risk on housing prices tend to disappear, as residents’ memories of the surprise fade and they seem to only recall the actual storm surge several years after the hurricane.

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  • Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Barr, Jason & Kim, Eon, 2021. "Storm surges, informational shocks, and the price of urban real estate: An application to the case of Hurricane Sandy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0166046221000545
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103694
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wen‐Chi Liao & Yilan Luo & Yajie Sun, 2022. "Information shock of disaster and hazard: Impact of Kaohsiung gas explosions and risk disclosure on the equalizing difference in the housing market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1492-1531, November.
    3. David Boto-García & Veronica Leoni, 2023. "The Economic Value of Coastal Amenities: Evidence from Beach Capitalization Effects in Peer-to-Peer Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(2), pages 529-557, February.
    4. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    5. Justin Contat & Caroline Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2023. "When Climate Meets Real Estate: A Survey of the Literature," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    6. Liang, Cong & Huang, Yaoxuan & Yip, Tsz Leung & Li, Victor Jing, 2022. "Does rail transit development gentrify neighborhoods? Evidence from Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 354-372.
    7. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E. Kahn, 2023. "Mortgage Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters: A Reply," Papers 2305.07179, arXiv.org.
    8. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Felix L. Friedt & Jackson P. Lautier, 2022. "The impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on New York City real estate: First evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 858-888, June.
    9. Jose J. Canals-Cerda & Raluca Roman, 2021. "Climate Change and Consumer Finance: A Very Brief Literature Review," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 21-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hurricane Sandy; Storm surges; New York City; Real estate prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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