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Natural Disasters and Real Asset Prices: What Can We Learn From Tornadoes?

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Abstract

Tornadoes’ impacts on real asset prices have not been extensively explored in a causal analysis framework. We estimate the effects of damage from a major tornado in Little Rock, AR on prices of nearby non-damaged residential real assets. We study how a typical home’s proximity to damaged properties might have led to a discount in the price of the subject property due to blight in the neighborhood. We focus on homes that sold between January 2022 and August 2024, and compare the effects of the March 31, 2023 tornado on sale prices for homes near versus far from damaged houses. For homes within 250 meters from a tornado-damaged home, our difference-in-differences estimates imply an average discount of 29 to 35 percent for all home sales, relative to those homes further away. These effects attenuate with greater distance from the damage points. The presence of additional damaged homes nearby lead to a significant house price discount in the range of 8 percent (within 250m) to 2 percent (within 500m). There is no additional significant discount for homes in lower-income Census block groups, implying homeowners who live in lower income neighborhoods do not perceive different real asset price effects of nearby tornado damage than other homeowners.

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  • Jeffrey P. Cohen & Violeta A. Gutkowski, 2024. "Natural Disasters and Real Asset Prices: What Can We Learn From Tornadoes?," Working Papers 2025-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 03 Dec 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99461
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2025.001
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    1. Dean Gatzlaff & Kathleen McCullough & Lorilee Medders & Charles M. Nyce, 2018. "The Impact of Hurricane Mitigation Features and Inspection Information on House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 566-591, November.
    2. Whoi Cho & Brian E. Whitacre & Claudia A. Rhoades, 2022. "The Effects of Tornadoes on Housing Prices in Moore, Oklahoma," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-73.
    3. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Paradiso, A. & Ghisletti, M., 2020. "Tornado activity, house prices, and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Bradley Ewing & Jamie Kruse & Yongsheng Wang, 2007. "Local housing price index analysis in wind-disaster-prone areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(2), pages 463-483, February.
    5. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Barr, Jason & Kim, Eon, 2021. "Storm surges, informational shocks, and the price of urban real estate: An application to the case of Hurricane Sandy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Ping Feng & Ziqi Zhou & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Mahmut Yasar, 2024. "Air Pollution and the Effects on House Prices: A Push for Sustainability," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 336-359, July.
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    8. repec:rre:publsh:v:52:y:2022:i:1 is not listed on IDEAS
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    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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