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Sea Level Rise and Home Prices: Evidence from Long Island


  • Justin Tyndall

    (University of Hawai‘i at Manoa Department of Economics, University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization)


Global sea level rise is a known consequence of climate change. As predictions of sea level rise have grown in magnitude and certainty, coastal real estate assets face an increasing climate risk. I use a complete data set of repeated home sales from Long Island in New York State to estimate the appreciation discount caused by the threat of sea level rise. The repeat sale methodology allows for unobserved property characteristics to be controlled for. Between 2000 and 2017, I find that residential properties that were exposed to future sea level rise experienced annual price appreciation that was 0.8 percentage points below unexposed properties. I provide numerous robustness checks to confirm this result. I also find evidence of demand spillovers by estimating an appreciation premium for properties that are near the coast but are relatively safe from sea level rise.

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  • Justin Tyndall, 2021. "Sea Level Rise and Home Prices: Evidence from Long Island," Working Papers 2021-2, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  • Handle: RePEc:hae:wpaper:2021-2

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Transportation; Safety; Health; Traffic Fatalities; Externalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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