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Evaluating the long-run effects of zoning reform on urban development

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  • Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for assessing the long-run effects of zoning reform on urban development, housing supply, and dwelling prices. We begin by developing a version of the monocentric model that features regulatory restrictions on the capital intensity of housing that vary between different residential zones. A key implication of the model is that differences in land price gradients between zones reflect differences in equilibrium floorspace. This facilitates empirical estimation of the anticipated supply response to zoning reform through the measurement of changes in land price differentials after policy announcement. We use the framework to evaluate a recently implemented reform in Auckland, New Zealand, finding that changes in land price gradients in upzoned areas compared to non-upzoned areas are consistent with an approximate 23.7% increase in floorspace. Using plausible estimates of long-run house price elasticities of demand from the extant literature, this supply increase implies that dwelling prices would be 15.1 to 26.9% higher under the counterfactual of no upzoning.

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  • Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2025. "Evaluating the long-run effects of zoning reform on urban development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:111:y:2025:i:c:s0166046224000930
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104062
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    1. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Gail Pacheco & Kade Sorensen, 2021. "The effect of upzoning on house prices and redevelopment premiums in Auckland, New Zealand," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(5), pages 959-976, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donovan, Stuart & Maltman, Matthew, 2025. "Dispelling myths: Reviewing the evidence on zoning reforms in Auckland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Upzoning; Land use regulations; Redevelopment; Housing construction; AMM model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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